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Tesla Estimates, Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley

By Sam Boughedda Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target was cut to $1,200 per share from $1,300 by Morgan Stanley analyst and Tesla bull Adam Jonas on Wednesday. Jonas said the firm's...
Tesla Estimates, Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley © Reuters Tesla (TSLA) Estimates, Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley

By Sam Boughedda

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target was cut to $1,200 per share from $1,300 by Morgan Stanley analyst and Tesla bull Adam Jonas on Wednesday.

Jonas said the firm's second-quarter unit estimates have been cut to 270k units compared to the previous 316k units, taking their FY22 volume forecast to 1.390mm vs. 1.425mm previously.

"We mark to market our 2Q forecasts for lower volume (latest data, China) with most of the shortfall made up for in 2H volume and higher pricing. Target falls to $1,200 (vs. $1,300) almost entirely due to WACC increasing to 9% from 8.5% previously," said Jonas.

Jonas added that with their volume estimates, they have allowed for some "modicum of upside" given the "historic ability of Tesla to significantly increase production/sales in the latter weeks of a given quarter."

"According to data from EV-Volumes, since 2019 in the 3rd month of a given Q, TSLA's sales have ranged from 47%-69% of its quarterly sales. This continued in 1Q22 where March sales accounted for 58% of sales in the quarter. With TSLA 2Q sales estimated to be around 100k units through May (EV-Volumes), we believe TSLA will flex its manufacturing prowess, aided by accelerated ramp of Austin and Berlin, and deliver ~170-175k units in June, slightly below the estimated ~180k units delivered in March '22."

The analyst maintained an Overweight rating on the stock, adding that they would buy Tesla weakness on a potentially weak 2Q print.

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03-07-2022 15:46:35 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0429Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2098↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.21↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6816↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2888Buy
 EUR/JPY140.98Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0007↑ Sell
 Gold1,812.90↑ Buy
 Silver19.823↑ Buy
 Copper3.6138Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI108.46↑ Sell
 Brent Oil111.48↑ Sell
 Natural Gas5.620↑ Sell
 US Coffee C223.95↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,448.31↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,825.33↑ Buy
 DAX12,813.03Buy
 FTSE 1007,168.65↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,859.79Sell
 Small Cap 20001,727.76↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,176.10↑ Buy
 BASF41.270↑ Buy
 Bayer57.35↑ Buy
 Allianz182.00↑ Sell
 Adidas167.64↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.566↑ Sell
 Siemens AG96.00↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.053↑ Buy
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