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Stocks gain, yields fall after U.S. inflation data

By Danilo Masoni and Tom Westbrook MILAN (Reuters) - A gauge of global stocks rose on Thursday while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell after a reading of consumer prices...
Stocks gain, yields fall after U.S. inflation data © Reuters. Passersby are silhouetted as they walk past in front of an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 18, 2022 REUTERS/Issei Kato
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By Danilo Masoni and Tom Westbrook

MILAN (Reuters) - A gauge of global stocks rose on Thursday while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell after a reading of consumer prices fueled expectations the Federal Reserve may have room to dial back the size of its expected interest rate hikes.

U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend.

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation.

On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 120.63 points, or 0.36%, to 34,093.64, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 2.43 points, or 0.06%, to 3,972.04 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 11.84 points, or 0.11%, to 10,919.83.

“The as expected headline and core CPI print have really contributed to the notion that the Fed will be downshifting again, whether it’s at February or at the March meeting remains to be seen, and we’re going to be watching the incoming Fed speak for any guidance throughout the day in that regard," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

"The fact that we have seen core inflation decelerate to 5.7% year-over-year, from 6% in November, reinforces the peak inflation argument."

The pan-European STOXX 600 index .STOXX rose 0.75% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS gained 0.45% and was on track for a fifth straight session of gains, its longest streak since August.

Expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting fell to 6.8% according to CME's FedWatch Tool, down from 23.3% the day prior. The market is pricing in a 93.2% chance of a 25 basis point hike, up from 76.7% on Wednesday.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year notes US10YT=RR were down 3.9 basis points to 3.517%, from 3.556% late on Wednesday.

The dollar index hit its lowest level since early June before paring losses, and was last =USD down 0.417%, with the euro EUR= up 0.42% to $1.08.

The Japanese yen strengthened 2.01% versus the greenback at 129.85 per dollar, while Sterling GBP= was last trading at $1.2151, up 0.07% on the day.

Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

U.S. crude CLc1 recently rose 1.11% to $78.27 per barrel and Brent LCOc1 was at $83.78, up 1.34% on the day.

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EUR/USD

1.0770

+0.0008 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0770

+0.0008 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2560

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

147.12

-0.19 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

AUD/USD

0.6554

+0.0006 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3592

0.0001 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

158.44

-0.12 (-0.08%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

0.9419

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

2,044.95

-2.95 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

24.277

+0.049 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.7393

+0.0093 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

69.60

+0.22 (+0.32%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Brent Oil Futures

74.30

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

2.568

+0.001 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

US Coffee C Futures

175.85

-7.90 (-4.30%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,483.75

+30.98 (+0.70%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

4,549.34

-17.84 (-0.39%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

DAX

16,656.44

+123.33 (+0.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,515.38

+25.54 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

Hang Seng

16,474.00

+168.50 (+1.03%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,851.25

-4.79 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,258.10

+19.70 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

44.440

+0.840 (+1.93%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

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Bayer AG NA

32.39

+0.69 (+2.16%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

240.95

+2.20 (+0.92%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Adidas AG

197.00

+1.72 (+0.88%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

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Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

8.585

+0.266 (+3.20%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

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Buy (0)

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Siemens AG Class N

160.92

+2.18 (+1.37%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Deutsche Bank AG

11.670

+0.100 (+0.86%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

    EUR/USD 1.0770 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2560 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 147.12 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6554 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3592 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 158.44 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9419 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 2,044.95 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 24.277 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.7393 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 69.60 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 74.30 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 2.568 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 175.85 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,483.75 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,549.34 Sell  
    DAX 16,656.44 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,515.38 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,474.00 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,851.25 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,258.10 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 44.440 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 32.39 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 240.95 Buy  
    Adidas 197.00 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 8.585 Sell  
    Siemens AG 160.92 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.670 Buy  
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