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Oil Swings as ‘Powell Factor’ Plays Against ‘Putin Fear’

By Barani Krishnan AiVIF.com -- In its most simplistic form, Wednesday’s swings in oil could be described as the Jerome Powell factor playing against the fear of Vladimir...
Oil Swings as ‘Powell Factor’ Plays Against ‘Putin Fear’ © Reuters.
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By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com -- In its most simplistic form, Wednesday’s swings in oil could be described as the Jerome Powell factor playing against the fear of Vladimir Putin.

As Federal Reserve Chair, Powell is expected to indicate at his news conference later in the day what further monetary tightening the central bank will do after September’s anticipated 75-basis point rate hike. The Fed isn’t alone with tightening though: Central banks in the United Kingdom to Switzerland are contemplating higher rates too.

Oil traders have to determine whether all that represent a more clear and present danger to their market than the potential disruptions that could come to Russia’s already sanctions-hampered oil exports from President Putin’s plan to place some 300,000 of his country’s army reservists on alert for Ukraine duty to ensure he doesn’t lose the war there.

An across-the-board increase in U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles announced by the Energy Information Administration for last week drove oil prices toward the January lows hit a fortnight ago before pulling back in Wednesday’s session.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, which serves as the U.S. crude benchmark, was down 52 cents, or 0.6%, at $83.42 per barrel by 12:45 Eastern U.S. Time (16:45 Greenwich Mean Time). WTI earlier hit a session low of $82.60, nearing the seven-month low of $81.20 it hit on Sept 8.

Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for oil, was down 45 cents, or 0.5%, at $90.17, versus its intraday low of $89.32.

“There's no doubt that the next day or so offers crucial rate announcements from major central banks around the world and only one is expected to resist the urge to change anything. Even the Bank of Japan could be tempted to surprise the markets with a small tweak to its yield curve control policy tool, although that looks very unlikely at this point in time given recent statements,” said Craig Erlam, analyst at online trading platform OANDA.

“It's the Federal Reserve that is the talk of the town today though,” he added.

The Fed’s long-declared goal for inflation is 2%. No one is sure how long it would take for the central bank to get there and if it will even be possible by 2024. 

The central bank’s performance in battling inflation has, however, been far from convincing. 

Even after the Fed’s 75-bp hike in June, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, peaked at an annualized of 9.1% that month, marking a new four-decade high (the CPI data is typically lagged by a month, to be sure). Price pressures have come down since, with the CPI slowing to an annualized 8.5% in July and 8.3% in August. But its retreat of 0.8% over two months versus two rate hikes totaling 1.5% — is dismal, to say the least.

Of course, the Fed could keep adding 75-bp increments to its remaining rate decisions for November and December to round out the year with rates ranging at 4.50-4.75%, compared to the zero to 0.25% it began 2022 with. Yet, it’s anyone’s guess where the CPI could be at that point. An educated guess would put it below 8% for sure, though there is still a good chance it would not be lower than 7.5%. 

Putin said he had signed a decree on partial mobilization, saying he was defending Russian territories and that the West wanted to destroy the country.

"The oil complex (advanced) largely off Putin’s apparent escalation of the Ukraine war," analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a comment carried by Reuters, noting the strong dollar and expected higher U.S. interest rates will limit oil price gains.

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04-10-2022 14:28:54 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9886

+0.0062 (+0.63%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

0.9886

+0.0062 (+0.63%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.1405

+0.0083 (+0.73%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

144.60

+0.07 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.6543

+0.0027 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3576

-0.0046 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

142.95

+0.95 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

0.9761

+0.0019 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Gold Futures

1,718.35

+16.35 (+0.96%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

21.025

+0.436 (+2.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.4880

+0.0692 (+2.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.88

+0.25 (+0.30%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

89.23

+0.37 (+0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

6.457

-0.045 (-0.69%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

215.55

-6.00 (-2.71%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,410.95

+68.78 (+2.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

3,678.43

+92.81 (+2.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (8)

DAX

12,424.97

+215.49 (+1.76%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

FTSE 100

6,977.74

+68.98 (+1.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

17,079.51

-143.32 (-0.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,709.05

+41.78 (+2.51%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

7,593.12

+131.12 (+1.76%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

41.585

+0.645 (+1.58%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

48.63

+0.68 (+1.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

163.41

+1.87 (+1.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

122.56

+3.56 (+2.99%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.783

+0.067 (+1.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

103.32

+2.40 (+2.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

7.777

+0.147 (+1.93%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 0.9886 Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.1405 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 144.60 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6543 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3576 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 142.95 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9761 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,718.35 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 21.025 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.4880 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 83.88 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 89.23 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 6.457 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 215.55 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,410.95 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,678.43 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,424.97 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 6,977.74 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 17,079.51 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,709.05 Buy  
    IBEX 35 7,593.12 Buy  
    BASF 41.585 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 48.63 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 163.41 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 122.56 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.783 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 103.32 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.777 ↑ Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,550/ 6,630
(10/ 10) # 1,683
SJC HCM6,540/ 6,640
(20/ 20) # 1,691
SJC Hanoi6,540/ 6,642
(20/ 20) # 1,693
SJC Danang6,540/ 6,642
(20/ 20) # 1,693
SJC Nhatrang6,540/ 6,642
(20/ 20) # 1,693
SJC Cantho6,540/ 6,642
(20/ 20) # 1,693
Cập nhật 04-10-2022 14:28:56
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,709.55 +8.59 0.50%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V22.12022.560
RON 95-III21.44021.860
E5 RON 92-II20.73021.140
DO 0.05S22.20022.640
DO 0,001S-V24.18024.660
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.68022.110
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WTI $83.53 -0.15 -0.18%
Brent $89.00 -0.33 -0.37%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.720,0024.030,00
EUR22.864,8324.144,42
GBP26.379,6327.503,66
JPY160,63170,05
KRW14,4117,55
Cập nhật lúc 13:23:31 04/10/2022
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