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Oil prices slip as markets await demand forecasts, economic clarity

By Ambar Warrick  AiVIF.com-- Oil prices fell on Monday after a sharp rally last week, as traders turned cautious and locked in some profits ahead of demand forecasts from the...
Oil prices slip as markets await demand forecasts, economic clarity © Reuters.
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By Ambar Warrick 

AiVIF.com-- Oil prices fell on Monday after a sharp rally last week, as traders turned cautious and locked in some profits ahead of demand forecasts from the OPEC and the IEA, as well as a barrage of economic data due this week. 

Crude prices rallied over 8% last week on the prospect of a rebound in Chinese demand, after the country reopened its borders and essentially confirmed a pivot away from its strict zero-COVID policy. Weakness in the U.S. dollar, amid signs of slowing inflation in the country, also benefited oil prices.

Focus is now squarely on a monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), due on Tuesday. Markets are waiting to see whether the cartel will change its forecasts for global demand in the face of a Chinese economic recovery.

Brent oil futures fell 0.5% to 85.09 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.6% to $79.67 a barrel in early Asian trade. Market volumes are expected to be limited due to a U.S. holiday on Monday.

Traders are also awaiting a report on crude markets from the International Energy Agency (IEA), due on Wednesday, for the body’s outlook on oil prices and demand for the year.

Beyond data from industry bodies, crude markets are also awaiting a slew of economic data and central bank meetings this week. 

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting is of key import to markets, after the lender unexpectedly struck a hawkish chord during its December meeting- a move that rattled financial markets. 

Inflation readings from the eurozone and England are also in focus, as is data on U.S. retail sales, factory gate inflation and industrial production.

Markets will be watching for any signs of slowing economic growth, amid increased fears of a recession in 2023. Oil prices had slumped in the first week of the year are the International Monetary Fund warned of a potential recession this year. 

This notion has largely limited any upside in crude markets, with traders fearing that oil demand will be impacted by slowing economic growth across the globe. 

While Chinese demand has shown some signs of recovery, the country is also grappling with its worst-yet COVID-19 outbreak, which markets fear could delay a bigger economic bounceback. 

 

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EUR/USD

1.0766

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0766

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2558

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

147.26

-0.05 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6550

+0.0001 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.3593

+0.0002 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

158.55

-0.01 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

0.9416

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

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Gold Futures

2,044.20

+0.85 (+0.04%)

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Silver Futures

24.262

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Copper Futures

3.7337

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Summary

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

69.50

+0.25 (+0.36%)

Summary

Buy

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74.30

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

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2.575

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175.85

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4,483.75

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-17.84 (-0.39%)

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16,656.44

+123.33 (+0.75%)

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7,515.38

+25.54 (+0.34%)

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Hang Seng

16,474.00

+168.50 (+1.03%)

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Buy

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1,851.25

-4.79 (-0.26%)

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Sell (7)

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10,258.10

+19.70 (+0.19%)

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Moving Avg:

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44.440

+0.840 (+1.93%)

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32.39

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240.95

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Moving Avg:

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197.00

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8.585

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Summary

Sell

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160.92

+2.18 (+1.37%)

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11.670

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    EUR/USD 1.0766 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2558 Buy  
    USD/JPY 147.26 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6550 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3593 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 158.55 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9416 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 2,044.20 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 24.262 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.7337 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 69.50 Buy  
    Brent Oil 74.30 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 2.575 Buy  
    US Coffee C 175.85 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,483.75 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,549.34 Sell  
    DAX 16,656.44 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,515.38 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,474.00 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,851.25 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,258.10 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 44.440 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 32.39 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 240.95 Buy  
    Adidas 197.00 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 8.585 Sell  
    Siemens AG 160.92 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.670 Buy  
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