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Guggenheim downgrades Tesla stock to Sell, sees nearly 30% downside risk

Guggenheim analyst Ali Faghri downgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Sell from Neutral as he sees a negative catalyst path for the electric vehicle (EV) stock. This negative catalyst path can...
Guggenheim downgrades Tesla stock to Sell, sees nearly 30% downside risk © Reuters. Guggenheim downgrades Tesla (TSLA) stock to Sell, sees nearly 30% downside risk
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Guggenheim analyst Ali Faghri downgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Sell from Neutral as he sees a negative catalyst path for the electric vehicle (EV) stock.

This negative catalyst path can yield underperformance in Tesla shares in both the near and mid-term, Faghri said in a client note. His new price target of $89 per share implies a downside risk of about 28% relative to yesterday’s closing price.

“Heading into a challenging backdrop in FY23, we believe TSLA had to decide whether to sacrifice volume growth or gross margins, and based on pricing actions, the answer appears to be gross margins. This creates a difficult narrative for a stock still trading at ~30x our FY23 estimates, which we now forecast to grow at just a ~10% CAGR over the next 3 years. Finally, TSLA pricing actions taken yesterday are a negative for all OEMs and lowers the overall profit pool, in our view,” the analyst wrote.

Faghri highlighted his 3 major concerns: 1) Tesla's Q4 margin miss could be “sizable,” 2) FY23 estimates need a reset, and 3) demand KPIs remain weak.

“Additionally, TSLA used prices are declining at ~3x the rate of the market over the last 3 months, which represents another signal of near-term oversupply (at least at prior prices) in the US market. Finally, our analysis shows how sensitive TSLA stock has been to wait time declines (~75% correlation with valuation); we anticipate this sensitivity will shift to price cuts,” he added.

Following the downgrade move to Sell at Guggenheim, Tesla stock now trades over 6% lower in pre-market Friday. Shares were initially down about 3.8% after Tesla implemented massive price cuts for Model 3 and Model Y across Europe and in the U.S., fueling investor concerns about weakening demand.

Faghri highlighted the upcoming Investor Day in March, which “could swing sentiment positive,” with a focus on commentary about a lower-priced model.

“We still think 2025 is the most likely timeframe,” the analyst concluded.

Tesla stock trades 6.2% lower as of 08:10 EST (13:10 GMT).

By Senad Karaahmetovic

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28-01-2023 04:11:06 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0868

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0868

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2397

-0.0009 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

129.85

-0.35 (-0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.7110

-0.0004 (-0.06%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3311

-0.0009 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

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Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

141.13

-0.66 (-0.47%)

Summary

Sell

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Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

1.0008

-0.0011 (-0.11%)

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Sell (8)

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1,928.30

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Neutral

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23.688

-0.332 (-1.38%)

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Neutral

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4.2220

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79.44

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Buy

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2.867

+0.019 (+0.67%)

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169.25

+2.10 (+1.26%)

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Sell

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Buy (2)

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,178.01

+4.03 (+0.10%)

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↑ Buy

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S&P 500

4,069.65

+9.22 (+0.23%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Sell (7)

DAX

15,150.03

+17.18 (+0.11%)

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↑ Buy

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FTSE 100

7,765.15

+4.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,688.90

+122.12 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,910.05

+12.09 (+0.64%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

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Sell (10)

IBEX 35

9,060.20

+24.60 (+0.27%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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52.790

+0.170 (+0.32%)

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56.28

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221.65

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Adidas AG

148.30

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.755

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144.50

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Deutsche Bank AG

12.340

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    EUR/USD 1.0868 Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2397 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 129.85 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.7110 Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3311 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 141.13 Sell  
    EUR/CHF 1.0008 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,928.30 Neutral  
    Silver 23.688 Neutral  
    Copper 4.2220 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.44 Buy  
    Brent Oil 86.38 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 2.867 Sell  
    US Coffee C 169.25 Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,178.01 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,069.65 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,150.03 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,765.15 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 22,688.90 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,910.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,060.20 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 52.790 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.28 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.65 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 148.30 Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.755 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 144.50 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.340 ↑ Buy  
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