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EUR/USD down, analysts warn of potential December correction

AiVIF.com -- EUR/USD strengthened again yesterday, marking a high of 1.0595 by midday, but then posted a correction to a low of 1.0477 this Tuesday morning. Positive sentiment...
EUR/USD down, analysts warn of potential December correction © O Financista.
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AiVIF.com -- EUR/USD strengthened again yesterday, marking a high of 1.0595 by midday, but then posted a correction to a low of 1.0477 this Tuesday morning.

Positive sentiment on hopes for a reopening of the Chinese economy, and dollar weakness on the prospect of a slowing Fed rate hike supported the EUR/USD in the early part of the day yesterday, before profit taking halted the rise as the currency pair approached the key 1.06 level.

U.S. data support the dollar, at the expense of EUR/USD

The release of strong U.S. data supported the dollar, and accelerated the fall of the EUR/USD, as the services PMI index, industry orders, and ISM services PMI all came in above expectations.

Shortly after these releases, an article by Nick Timiraos, a Fed specialist at The Wall Street Journal, who is currently considered to be the most accurate analyst on the central bank's intentions, also provided arguments to the dollar bulls.

Referring to the solid wage gains in last week's NFP report, Timiraos wrote that the wage increases could lead the Fed to continue to raise wages at higher-than-expected levels.

He also pointed to the December 13 U.S. CPI as a key event, which could lead to another 50 basis point hike in February if the numbers are better than expected, given that for now the market's base case for the February FOMC meeting is a 25 basis point rate hike.

Banks doubt that the EUR/USD will continue to rise

The question now for EUR/USD in the face of the beginning of the correction seen since yesterday is whether this is a simple breather, or a broader correction is to be feared for the rest of December.

Seasonality is in favor of the upside, as the EUR/USD has posted a positive monthly balance (averaging +1.5%) in 15 of the 23 December months since the creation of the single currency.

However, while the EUR/USD jumped more than 5% in November, signing its best month since 2010, the risk is that the immediate bullish potential has already been exhausted, and a correction looms.

“The seasonal euro bias is strong but the rally in October and in particular November may mean the move has started earlier than usual,” said Derek Halpenny, an MUFG analyst, quoted by Bloomberg.

He expects EUR/USD to return to parity in early 2023, saying “the fundamentals for a sustained selloff of the US dollar are not yet really in place.”

For its part, ING Bank warned that issues related to rising energy prices could return to the forefront, which would weigh on the euro.

"Given the high sensitivity of EUR/USD to the eurozone’s terms of trade (which is primarily driven by energy prices), further upside risks for energy commodities equal downside risks for the euro," ING wrote.

Finally, it should be noted that not all banks are of the same opinion, as Société Générale wrote yesterday, "Year-end short covering and market bias to be upbeat about 2023 should help the euro," recommending a buy of the EUR/USD pair with a target of 1.10 by year-end.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
(8,300/ 8,500) # 1,298
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG8,300/ 8,520
(0/ 0) # 1,510
SJC 1c, 2c, 5c7,380/ 7,550
(0/ 0) # 540
SJC 0,5c7,380/ 7,560
(0/ 0) # 550
SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
(0/ 0) # 460
SJC 99%7,196/ 7,396
(0/ 0) # 386
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.44025.940
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WTI $80.83 +3.39 0.04%
Brent $85.50 +3.86 0.05%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD25.088,0025.458,00
EUR26.475,3627.949,19
GBP30.873,5232.211,36
JPY156,74166,02
KRW15,9219,31
Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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