Crude Oil Lower; Recession Fears, Chinese Covid Worries Weigh

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By Peter Nurse   

AiVIF.com -- Oil prices fell Friday, ending a difficult week on a negative note on fears a global economic slowdown and further Covid restrictions in China will severely hit demand.

By 09:25 ET (13:25 GMT), U.S. crude futures traded 1.9% lower at $87.38 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 1.7% to $92.96. 

Both benchmarks are on course to drop over 5% this week as signs of a global recession and tighter monetary policy threaten to sap energy consumption.

U.S. inflation data released on Thursday came in higher than expected, and cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 75 basis points at its next meeting, and probably at its final gathering of 2022, slowing growth by the world’s largest economy.

Evidence of this slowdown came in the form of the latest U.S. retail sales numbers, which were flat in nominal terms in September, below expectations and again highlighting the pressure on consumer spending power from high inflation.

Additionally, data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by a bigger-than-expected 9.88 million barrels last week. Although the bulk of this rise was driven by a hefty draw down from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the U.S. government, the rise in stocks suggests slowing demand.

“Although when taking into consideration SPR releases, total U.S. crude oil inventories increased by just 2.2MMbbls The large commercial build was predominantly driven by a large decline in crude oil exports,” said analysts at ING, in a note. 

Persistent outbreaks of Covid in China also threaten crude demand in the world’s largest importer with the government maintaining its strict control and suppression policy. 

The Chinese government may not move away from its Covid Zero policy until the second half of 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund, which is likely to mean China’s economic growth will likely slow to just 3.2% this year, short of the government’s official goal of 5.5%.

This week’s losses follow the decision last week by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, to rein in output in order to drive up prices.

This decision was criticized by the International Energy Agency on Thursday, with the Paris-based organization cutting its oil demand forecast for this and next year while warning of a potential global recession.

"The relentless deterioration of the economy and higher prices sparked by an OPEC+ plan to cut supply are slowing world oil demand," the IEA said. "With unrelenting inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes taking their toll, higher oil prices may prove the tipping point for a global economy already on the brink of recession."

The Baker Hughes rig count and the CFTC’s positioning data round off the week later in the session, as usual.