Asia FX Tepid, Dollar Steadies Ahead of U.S. CPI Inflation

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By Ambar Warrick 

AiVIF.com-- Most Asian currencies moved little on Tuesday, while the U.S. dollar curbed a recent losing streak as markets turned cautious ahead of hotly anticipated U.S. inflation data later in the day.

Regional units such as the Chinese yuan, Hong Kong dollar and South Korean won barely budged against the dollar in anticipation of the data. 

The greenback on the other hand appeared to have stabilized after five straight days of losses. The dollar index fell 0.1%, while dollar index futures lost a similar amount. Both indicators lost about 2% each in the past five sessions, as they retreated from a 20-year peak hit last week.

Profit taking and cooling inflation expectations were the biggest reasons behind the greenback’s retreat. 

U.S. CPI inflation, due at 8:30 ET (12:30 GMT), is expected to show that inflation eased further off 40-year highs in August, declining for a second consecutive month. Markets hope the reading will provide more indicators of easing price pressures on the U.S. economy.

Rising inflation spurred a series of sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, a move that boosted the dollar and significantly weighed on Asian currencies. 

But even with inflation appearing to be on the downtrend, the Fed is widely expected to keep hiking interest rates until the reading comes between its annual target of 2%. Traders are pricing in an over 90% chance of a 75-basis point hike by the central bank next week. 

Still, expectations of an eventual softening in the Fed’s hawkish stance weighed on the dollar. This also benefited the Japanese yen and the euro- two currencies that saw outsized losses against the dollar this year due to a widening gulf in interest rates.

The Japanese yen rose 0.2% on Tuesday, while the euro added 0.1%. Both currencies are still trading near multi-year lows to the dollar. 

In the Asia-Pacific region, the Australian dollar sank 0.2%, after data showed that consumer and business sentiment remained subdued in the country, despite a mild improvement in recent months. 

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% ahead of current account and GDP data due later this week. Annualized economic growth in the country is expected to have severely declined in the second quarter, due to rising inflation and interest rates.