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Stocks edge higher as darker forecasts loom

03 Tháng Giêng 2023
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By Nell Mackenzie

(Reuters) -World stocks inched higher, European bond yields dropped and the dollar held firm in light trading on Monday following warnings from the International Monetary Fund's managing director that a third of the world will fall into recession in 2023.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.04%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.21%.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index climbed 0.9%, retracing some of the nearly 12% it lost in 2022, bludgeoned by central banks' aggressive monetary policy tightening.

Traders were reluctant to trust early-year starts in stock and bond moves with many markets closed for a holiday and ahead of a host of economic numbers due this week.

Inflation data from Europe, minutes from the December U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. labour market numbers were some of the highlights that Danske Bank chief analyst Piet Haines Christiansen said would be worth watching.

"I would be cautious over interpreting any moves this morning," said Christiansen.

Markets in Australia, Britain, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Singapore and the United States, were shut.

Christiansen expected the new year to kick off with a renewed focus on central banks and inflation. Traders would be vigilant for any signs of an approaching recession, he said.

Buoyant stock prices in Europe might be due, he said, to survey results published on Monday, which pointed towards a rebound in optimism among euro zone factory managers.

S&P Global’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) bounced to 47.8 in December from November’s 47.1, matching a preliminary reading but below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

"Europe is taking the latest round of PMIs well enough, as the final readings help to confirm the view (hope?) that the worst may be over for the EU bloc’s manufacturers, especially as energy prices recede to the levels of last February," Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, wrote in emailed comments.

DOLLAR STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH

Elsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.1% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

"There is an attempt by the dollar index to pull higher today but we do see that it is losing a good part of the strength it gained last year," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex research at Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG).

"After the last Fed meeting, the market was not convinced that the Fed won't cut rates later in 2023. It's going to be an interesting year."

U.S. Treasuries will resume trading on Tuesday after a public holiday on Monday.

German government bond yields on Monday tumbled from their highest levels in more than a decade amid more hawkish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB).

ECB President Christine Lagarde said euro zone wages were growing quicker than earlier thought, and the central bank must prevent this from adding to already-high inflation.

Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 13 bps to 2.43%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday.

Oil markets were closed but prices in 2023 are set for small gains, as a darkening economic backdrop and COVID-19 flare-ups in China threaten demand growth and offset the impact of supply shortfalls caused by sanctions on Russia, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The new year is going to be "tougher than the year we leave behind," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday on the CBS Sunday morning news program "Face the Nation."

"Why? Because the three big economies - the U.S., EU and China - are all slowing down simultaneously," she said.

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28-01-2023 03:40:12 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2391

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

129.88

-0.32 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.7110

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3303

-0.0017 (-0.13%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

141.16

-0.62 (-0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

1.0012

-0.0008 (-0.08%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,929.15

-0.85 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

Silver Futures

23.698

-0.322 (-1.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.2260

-0.0415 (-0.97%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.45

-1.56 (-1.93%)

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Brent Oil Futures

86.38

-1.09 (-1.25%)

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Natural Gas Futures

2.874

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Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (4)

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US Coffee C Futures

169.25

+2.10 (+1.26%)

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Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

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Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,178.01

+4.03 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

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S&P 500

4,088.29

+27.86 (+0.69%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

DAX

15,150.03

+17.18 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,765.15

+4.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

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Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,688.90

+122.12 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,914.85

+16.89 (+0.89%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

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Buy (1)

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IBEX 35

9,060.20

+24.60 (+0.27%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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BASF SE NA O.N.

52.790

+0.170 (+0.32%)

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Bayer AG NA

56.28

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221.65

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Adidas AG

148.30

+3.02 (+2.08%)

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Sell

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Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.755

+0.028 (+0.29%)

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Siemens AG Class N

144.50

+0.44 (+0.31%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

12.340

+0.208 (+1.71%)

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    EUR/USD 1.0869 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2391 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 129.88 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.7110 Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3303 Sell  
    EUR/JPY 141.16 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 1.0012 Buy  
    Gold 1,929.15 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.698 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.2260 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.45 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 86.38 Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.874 Buy  
    US Coffee C 169.25 Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,178.01 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,088.29 Neutral  
    DAX 15,150.03 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,765.15 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 22,688.90 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,914.85 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,060.20 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 52.790 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.28 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.65 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 148.30 Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.755 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 144.50 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.340 ↑ Buy  
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