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Stock swoon resets valuations but recession risk, rates cloud outlook

06 Tháng Giêng 2023
Stock swoon resets valuations but recession risk, rates cloud outlook © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A trader walks by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., May 19, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are starting 2023 at much cheaper levels after Wall Street's biggest swoon in 14 years but the potential for a recession combined with higher interest rates means equities may not be priced low enough to lure investors.

Since the S&P 500 reached an all-time high a year ago, the index's price-to-earnings ratio has fallen over 20% from its peaks to levels closer to historic averages.

Some investors still see reasons to be skeptical. Stocks may be more expensive than they appear if current earnings estimates do not fully account for any economic slowdown, while any downturn could further dampen what investors are willing to pay for equities.

"Valuations have corrected, but they are still not compelling relative to the macro challenges that exist," said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, which rates fixed income as more attractive than equities.

"At best, you can say that valuations are average," Lerner said, "but the question I think you have to ask yourself is average enough given elevated recession risk?"

The S&P 500 tumbled 19.4% in 2022, as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes designed to tamp down 40-year high inflation punished asset prices. Through the first few days of the new year, the benchmark stock index slipped 0.8%.

The market's 2022 slide cut the ratio of price to forward earnings estimates to around 17 from about 21.7 a year ago, according to Refinitiv Datastream. The current level remains slightly above the index's 15.8 average of the past 20 years.

GRAPHIC: Moderating stock market values (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdkkrjrvo/Pasted%20image%201672943959310.png)

Valuations may still be too high if a recession comes to pass, as many on Wall Street expect. Fund managers in last month's BofA Global Research survey cited a deep global recession and persistently high inflation as the market's biggest risks, with a net 68% forecasting a likely downturn in the next year.

UBS economists forecast a recession from the second through fourth quarters of this year, "as rate hikes push a vulnerable economy into contraction."

"As growth deteriorates considerably into Q2/Q3, we assume the multiple falls toward 14.5 (times)," UBS equity strategists said in a note. Combined with an expectation of weakening earnings estimates, that would lower the S&P 500 to 3,200, UBS said, roughly 16% below current levels.

Any recession could pressure corporate profits more than is factored into projections. Consensus analyst estimates call for a 4.4% increase in earnings this year, according to Refinitiv IBES.

Yet during recessions, earnings fall at an average annual rate of 24%, according to Ned Davis Research. If estimates are overly rosy, that means the P/E ratio is higher than it appears, making stocks seem less attractive.

The profit picture will start to become clearer as fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off next week. Reports are due from banks Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C), healthcare titan UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), asset manager BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL).

The 2022 surge in interest rates also could undermine stock valuations by making relatively safe assets like U.S. Treasuries more attractive alternatives. Yields on benchmark Treasuries jumped to 15-year highs last year after a long period when relatively safe assets yielded little.

"The problem with the valuation analysis right now is the old saying was there is no alternative to stocks because interest rates were so low," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

With interest rates "significantly higher than they were the last decade ... that higher multiple you used to pay for stocks may not be as justified," he added.

The equity risk premium, or extra return investors expect to receive for holding stocks over risk-free government bonds, has become less favorable over the past year, according to Truist's Lerner.

The current premium coincides with a 12-month excess return of 3.5% for the S&P 500 over the 10-year Treasury note, but "downgrades to the economy and earnings remain risks," Lerner said in a note.

Thursday's closely watched December consumer price index report could influence the scope of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes this year.

Investors are searching for bargains. State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Advisors prefers mid-cap and small-cap stocks to their large-cap counterparts, said State Street's chief investment strategist Michael Arone.

The S&P 400 midcap index and the S&P 600 small-cap index are both trading at around 13 times forward earnings estimates, well below their respective long-term averages, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

"As you move down in market capitalization, the valuations become more attractive," Arone said.

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28-01-2023 04:31:34 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0020 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0869

-0.0020 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2399

-0.0006 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

129.85

-0.35 (-0.27%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7107

-0.0006 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

USD/CAD

1.3312

-0.0008 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

141.14

-0.65 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0011

-0.0009 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,927.50

-2.50 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

23.683

-0.337 (-1.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.2250

-0.0425 (-1.00%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.39

-1.62 (-2.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

86.35

-1.12 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Natural Gas Futures

2.864

+0.016 (+0.56%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

169.25

+2.10 (+1.26%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,178.01

+4.03 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,070.56

+10.13 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,150.03

+17.18 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,765.15

+4.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,688.90

+122.12 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,911.47

+8.40 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

9,060.20

+24.60 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.790

+0.170 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

56.28

+0.24 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Sell (3)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.65

+0.05 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

148.30

+3.02 (+2.08%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.755

+0.028 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

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Siemens AG Class N

144.50

+0.44 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

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Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.340

+0.208 (+1.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0869 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2399 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 129.85 Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.7107 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3312 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 141.14 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 1.0011 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,927.50 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.683 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.2250 Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.39 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 86.35 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.864 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 169.25 Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,178.01 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,070.56 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,150.03 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,765.15 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 22,688.90 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,911.47 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,060.20 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 52.790 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.28 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.65 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 148.30 Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.755 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 144.50 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.340 ↑ Buy  
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