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Marketmind: If the yield cap fits..

Monday, January 16, 2023
Marketmind: If the yield cap fits.. © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks past Bank of Japan's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, June 17, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

Fourth-quarter GDP growth tops a list of key Chinese indicators, while interest rate decisions from Indonesia and Malaysia will be pored over by investors. But the biggest event this week will be the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Trading volume across the region may be lighter than usual on Monday because U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. The real market action will come later in the week.

While the BOJ is expected to leave its central 'yield curve control' targets at -0.10% for short-term rates and 0% for the 10-year bond yield, all eyes will be on whether policymakers make further adjustments to yield-curve control (YCC) bands following December's surprise tweak.

Graphic: Japan 10-year yield https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzqwkykvw/Japan10y.jpg

The BOJ stunned markets last month by effectively raising the cap on the 10-year yield to 0.50% from 0.25% and investors have gunned for it since - it hit 0.55% last week, forcing the BOJ to ramp up its already massive quantities of bond purchases.

The BOJ may also raise its inflation forecasts on Wednesday, ahead of December inflation data on Friday.

The yen has been on a tear recently. The BOJ stunned markets again in October by intervening in FX market buying yen for the first time since 1998 - three bouts of intervention in total have helped push the yen to a seven-month high of 127.50 per dollar, a far cry from October's low of 151.00.

China's yuan also has been surging against the beleaguered dollar on soaring optimism surrounding the country's reopening now that Beijing has ditched its zero-COVID policy. The yuan hit 6.70 per dollar on Friday, its strongest since early July.

Chinese house price data will be released on Monday, before a barrage of releases the following day - Q4 GDP, and December retail sales, industrial production and fixed investment. All are expected to be weaker than the previous prints but investors are hoping this marks the economic nadir.

Later in the week, Bank Indonesia is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points to 5.75%. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reckon inflation probably peaked in September but remains too high for policymakers' liking, so they will hike twice more for a terminal rate of 6.25% by March.

Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to raise rates by a quarter point on Thursday, to 3.00%. Goldman predicts another two 25 bps increases for a peak rate of 3.50% by May, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)'s team reckons this will be the last hike of the cycle.

Elsewhere, there are no fewer than 11 speeches from Fed officials lined up this week, and a record number of world leaders, policy makers and top corporate chiefs will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

- China house prices (December)

- Indonesia trade (December)

- India wholesale price inflation (December)

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24-02-2024 13:56:12 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0821

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0821

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2671

+0.0012 (+0.09%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

150.52

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.6564

+0.0011 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.3510

+0.0029 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

162.88

-0.05 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

0.9535

+0.0008 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,045.80

+15.10 (+0.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Silver Futures

22.977

+0.193 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.8690

-0.0280 (-0.72%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

76.57

-2.04 (-2.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

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Brent Oil Futures

81.58

-2.09 (-2.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Natural Gas Futures

1.582

-0.150 (-8.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

179.85

-3.30 (-1.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,872.25

+16.89 (+0.35%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

5,088.80

+1.77 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

DAX

17,419.33

+48.88 (+0.28%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,706.28

+21.79 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

16,725.86

-17.09 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

2,016.69

+2.85 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

10,130.60

-8.30 (-0.08%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.600

-0.245 (-0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

28.82

-0.10 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

246.50

-8.60 (-3.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (4)

Indicators:

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Sell (2)

Adidas AG

188.78

+0.96 (+0.51%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.381

-0.122 (-1.63%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

175.30

+3.20 (+1.86%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.390

+0.138 (+1.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

    EUR/USD 1.0821 Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2671 Sell  
    USD/JPY 150.52 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6564 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3510 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 162.88 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9535 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 2,045.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 22.977 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.8690 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 76.57 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 81.58 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 1.582 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 179.85 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,872.25 Buy  
    S&P 500 5,088.80 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,419.33 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,706.28 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,725.86 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 2,016.69 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,130.60 Buy  
    BASF 46.600 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 28.82 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 246.50 Buy  
    Adidas 188.78 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.381 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 175.30 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.390 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,630/ 7,800
(0/ 0) # 1,759
SJC HCM7,660/ 7,880
(30/ 30) # 1,801
SJC Hanoi7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
SJC Danang7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
SJC Nhatrang7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
SJC Cantho7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
Cập nhật 24-02-2024 13:56:14
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
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RON 95-V24.10024.580
RON 95-III23.59024.060
E5 RON 92-II22.47022.910
DO 0.05S20.91021.320
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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EUR25.943,7727.367,66
GBP30.352,8931.644,65
JPY158,40167,65
KRW15,9619,35
Cập nhật lúc 13:53:16 24/02/2024
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