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Marketmind: Fed up? Square up

06 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: Fed up? Square up © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

If Asian markets take their cue on Friday from Wall Street's slump on Thursday, they will likely succumb to a bout of profit-taking on what has been a fairly positive start to the year.

But the relative outperformance may not last. The deepening gloom surrounding the Fed and its 'higher for longer' stance on interest rates will surely spread to Asia - likely soon, depending on how the latest U.S. employment data pans out.

December's non-farm payrolls report on Friday comes at the end of a week in which surprisingly strong U.S. labor market data have pushed up Fed rate expectations, even though economic activity continues to scream slowdown if not recession.

US nonfarm payrolls - actual vs forecasts: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgvobbqzdpd/PAYROLLS1.jpg

2023 Fed rate cut expectations: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpeqqdxwpr/2023sofr2.png

The Fed's implied terminal rate, according to 'SOFR' rates futures, is back above 5% for the first time in a month, and the amount of rate cuts priced in by the end of the year has fallen to a two-month low of 33 basis points.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for their fifth consecutive weekly decline - the longest losing streak since April to May last year - marking a significant underperformance versus the rest of the world and Asia in particular.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index hit a four-month high on Thursday. It, Chinese equities and Hong Kong tech stocks are all firmly in the green for the week - HK tech is up nearly 9% - so traders may think it prudent to square up a little ahead of the payrolls report.

Watch foreign exchange markets, too - the dollar is up 1.5% so far this week, on course for its best week since September. Of course, a higher dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields and tighter U.S. financial conditions is never a good mix for emerging markets.

On the local data front, the main event is Taiwan inflation for December.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

- U.S. non-farm payrolls (December)

- Fed's Cook, Bostic, Barkin and George all speak

- Euro zone flash inflation (December)

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04-02-2023 06:41:09 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0795

-0.0115 (-1.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0795

-0.0115 (-1.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2054

-0.0169 (-1.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

131.19

+2.54 (+1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6923

-0.0153 (-2.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3399

+0.0084 (+0.63%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

141.62

+1.26 (+0.90%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

0.9996

+0.0036 (+0.36%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,877.70

-53.10 (-2.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

22.390

-1.225 (-5.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.0312

-0.0598 (-1.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

73.23

-2.65 (-3.49%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

79.82

-2.35 (-2.86%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

2.385

-0.071 (-2.89%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

173.63

-4.27 (-2.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,257.98

+16.86 (+0.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

4,136.48

-43.28 (-1.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

DAX

15,476.43

-32.76 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,901.80

+81.64 (+1.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

21,660.47

-297.89 (-1.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,983.57

-17.65 (-0.88%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

9,225.60

-4.10 (-0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

54.040

+0.200 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

56.68

-0.12 (-0.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

220.75

-0.95 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

161.06

+3.14 (+1.99%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.902

+0.009 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

145.02

+1.30 (+0.90%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.530

+0.074 (+0.65%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

    EUR/USD 1.0795 Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2054 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 131.19 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6923 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3399 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 141.62 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9996 Buy  
    Gold 1,877.70 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 22.390 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.0312 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 73.23 Buy  
    Brent Oil 79.82 Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.385 Sell  
    US Coffee C 173.63 Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,257.98 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,136.48 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,476.43 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,901.80 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 21,660.47 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,983.57 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,225.60 Neutral  
    BASF 54.040 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.68 Neutral  
    Allianz 220.75 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 161.06 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 9.902 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 145.02 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.530 Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,670/ 6,730
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SJC HCM6,670/ 6,750
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SJC Hanoi6,670/ 6,752
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