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Marketmind: Fed up? Square up

Friday, January 6, 2023
Marketmind: Fed up? Square up © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

If Asian markets take their cue on Friday from Wall Street's slump on Thursday, they will likely succumb to a bout of profit-taking on what has been a fairly positive start to the year.

But the relative outperformance may not last. The deepening gloom surrounding the Fed and its 'higher for longer' stance on interest rates will surely spread to Asia - likely soon, depending on how the latest U.S. employment data pans out.

December's non-farm payrolls report on Friday comes at the end of a week in which surprisingly strong U.S. labor market data have pushed up Fed rate expectations, even though economic activity continues to scream slowdown if not recession.

US nonfarm payrolls - actual vs forecasts: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgvobbqzdpd/PAYROLLS1.jpg

2023 Fed rate cut expectations: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpeqqdxwpr/2023sofr2.png

The Fed's implied terminal rate, according to 'SOFR' rates futures, is back above 5% for the first time in a month, and the amount of rate cuts priced in by the end of the year has fallen to a two-month low of 33 basis points.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for their fifth consecutive weekly decline - the longest losing streak since April to May last year - marking a significant underperformance versus the rest of the world and Asia in particular.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index hit a four-month high on Thursday. It, Chinese equities and Hong Kong tech stocks are all firmly in the green for the week - HK tech is up nearly 9% - so traders may think it prudent to square up a little ahead of the payrolls report.

Watch foreign exchange markets, too - the dollar is up 1.5% so far this week, on course for its best week since September. Of course, a higher dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields and tighter U.S. financial conditions is never a good mix for emerging markets.

On the local data front, the main event is Taiwan inflation for December.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

- U.S. non-farm payrolls (December)

- Fed's Cook, Bostic, Barkin and George all speak

- Euro zone flash inflation (December)

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23-02-2024 04:44:11 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0823

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0823

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2660

+0.0026 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

150.52

+0.24 (+0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

AUD/USD

0.6557

+0.0007 (+0.11%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3483

-0.0022 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

162.91

+0.29 (+0.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

0.9527

+0.0011 (+0.12%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,034.05

-0.25 (-0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

22.777

-0.097 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

3.8952

+0.0202 (+0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

78.38

+0.47 (+0.60%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

83.48

+0.45 (+0.54%)

Summary

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Natural Gas Futures

1.728

-0.045 (-2.54%)

Summary

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Indicators:

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Sell (1)

US Coffee C Futures

183.23

-4.87 (-2.59%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,855.85

+80.54 (+1.69%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

S&P 500

5,087.03

+105.23 (+2.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

DAX

17,370.45

+252.33 (+1.47%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,684.49

+21.98 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

16,742.95

+239.85 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,009.05

+14.31 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

IBEX 35

10,138.90

+31.70 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.845

+0.440 (+0.95%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

28.91

-0.02 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

255.10

+4.40 (+1.76%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

187.82

+6.38 (+3.52%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.503

+0.075 (+1.01%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

172.10

+2.68 (+1.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.252

+0.258 (+2.15%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 1.0823 Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2660 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 150.52 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6557 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3483 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 162.91 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9527 Buy  
    Gold 2,034.05 Neutral  
    Silver 22.777 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.8952 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 78.38 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 83.48 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.728 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 183.23 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,855.85 Neutral  
    S&P 500 5,087.03 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,370.45 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,684.49 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,742.95 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 2,009.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,138.90 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 46.845 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 28.91 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 255.10 Sell  
    Adidas 187.82 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.503 Sell  
    Siemens AG 172.10 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.252 Neutral  
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