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JPMorgan Plays Down Odds of Full-Point Fed Rate Hike

15 Tháng Chín 2022
JPMorgan Plays Down Odds of Full-Point Fed Rate Hike © Bloomberg. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JP Morgan Securities LLC, smiles during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, March 6, 2018. Feroli discussed the impact of potential U.S. tariffs on the stock market.
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(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to raise interest rates by a super-sized 100 basis points when they meet next week, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) chief US economist Michael Feroli.

“We think the odds of a 100 basis-point move -- though certainly not zero -- are lower than a third,” he wrote in an note to clients Wednesday. “Good drivers don’t increase their speed as they get closer to their destination.”

Investors fully expect a 75 basis-point increase when Fed officials gather Sept. 20-21 and see a roughly one-in-three chance they will opt for the bigger move, according to pricing in federal fund futures contracts. That’s after core US consumer inflation came in at a much-hotter-than-forecast 0.6% in August compared with the prior month.

Feroli said that up-shifting to 100 basis points would imply an even-higher peak for the Fed’s benchmark rate above 5%, “which we doubt.” He also warned that stamping even harder on the monetary policy brakes now could in turn harden bets that this be followed by Fed rate cuts in 2023. That would make the Fed’s job on price pressures even harder by easing financial conditions.

“A 100 basis-point move next week may only encourage those who see easing next year following a Fed accelerating hikes in late ‘22,” he said. 

Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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03-10-2022 19:33:25 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9767

-0.0032 (-0.33%)

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EUR/USD

0.9767

-0.0032 (-0.33%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

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GBP/USD

1.1213

+0.0053 (+0.47%)

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Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

144.88

+0.12 (+0.09%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

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AUD/USD

0.6462

+0.0060 (+0.94%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

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USD/CAD

1.3722

-0.0103 (-0.75%)

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EUR/JPY

141.50

-0.34 (-0.24%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9661

-0.0009 (-0.10%)

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Sell (5)

Gold Futures

1,677.65

+5.65 (+0.34%)

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Silver Futures

19.602

+0.563 (+2.96%)

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Copper Futures

3.3910

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.80

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Brent Oil Futures

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US Coffee C Futures

218.75

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S&P 500

3,585.62

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DAX

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+2.62 (+0.02%)

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FTSE 100

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17,079.51

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US Small Cap 2000

1,667.27

-7.66 (-0.46%)

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IBEX 35

7,408.49

+41.69 (+0.57%)

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40.325

+0.725 (+1.83%)

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Bayer AG NA

47.59

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

161.10

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Adidas AG

117.58

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.541

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Siemens AG Class N

99.71

-1.49 (-1.47%)

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7.455

-0.191 (-2.50%)

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Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 0.9767 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.1213 Buy  
    USD/JPY 144.88 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6462 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3722 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 141.50 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9661 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,677.65 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 19.602 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.3910 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 83.80 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 89.23 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.522 Neutral  
    US Coffee C 218.75 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,317.35 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,585.62 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,116.98 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 6,875.75 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,079.51 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,667.27 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 7,408.49 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 40.325 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 47.59 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 161.10 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 117.58 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.541 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 99.71 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.455 Neutral  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,540/ 6,620
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SJC HCM6,520/ 6,620
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SJC Hanoi6,520/ 6,622
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SJC Nhatrang6,520/ 6,622
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