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It's terminal

15 Tháng Chín 2022
It's terminal © Reuters. Signage is seen at the United States Department of the Treasury headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 29, 2020. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever

It is almost as if nothing else matters right now.

Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields and interest rate futures' pricing of the Fed's terminal rate dominate world markets, and a batch of key economic data from Japan, Australia and South Korea is unlikely to change that in Asia on Thursday.

Wall Street on Wednesday failed to rebound from the previous day's meltdown and world stocks fell for a second straight session as implied rates and yields marched even higher.

Before Tuesday's U.S. inflation data, the market debate was whether the Fed will raise rates next week by 50 or 75 basis points. The question now is whether it will be a 75 or 100 bps rate hike.

Traders have pushed the terminal rate up to 4.35% by March next year, and have lifted the 2-year yield above 3.80%. Some forecasts are now pointing to a terminal rate of 5% and a 2-year yield above 4%.

Is this typical market overreaction, or are these realistic targets? If it is the latter, the risk of a policy error must surely be rising.

FX markets are on heightened intervention alert from Japan after the BOJ checked market rates with banks on Wednesday, a potential prelude to direct yen-buying intervention. The yen rallied, but the ever-widening spread between U.S. and Japanese yields will only support the dollar.

Trade data from Japan, South Korea and Indonesia could give their respective currencies some steer on Thursday, while employment and GDP figures could do the same for the Aussie and kiwi dollars, respectively.

But it is all about the U.S. 2-year yield and Fed terminal rate.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

Japan import, export, trade (August)

South Korea trade (August)

Australia labor market, unemployment (August)

Indonesia trade (August)

New Zealand GDP (Q2)

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25-09-2022 19:10:49 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9690

-0.0146 (-1.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

0.9690

-0.0146 (-1.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.0858

-0.0399 (-3.54%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

143.34

+0.99 (+0.69%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.6526

-0.0117 (-1.76%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.3591

+0.0103 (+0.77%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

138.90

-1.05 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9513

-0.0090 (-0.94%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,651.70

-29.40 (-1.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

18.835

-0.782 (-3.99%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Copper Futures

3.3485

-0.1225 (-3.53%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.43

-4.06 (-4.86%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

85.03

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

6.992

0.000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

220.15

-3.40 (-1.52%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,348.60

-78.54 (-2.29%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

S&P 500

3,693.23

-64.76 (-1.72%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

12,284.19

-247.44 (-1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,018.60

-140.92 (-1.97%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

17,933.27

-214.68 (-1.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

US Small Cap 2000

1,676.17

-46.14 (-2.68%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

7,583.50

-191.20 (-2.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.790

-1.210 (-2.95%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Bayer AG NA

49.58

-1.92 (-3.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

168.74

-3.48 (-2.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

130.96

-2.50 (-1.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.674

-0.172 (-2.94%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

98.63

-0.43 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.632

-0.401 (-4.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 0.9690 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.0858 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 143.34 Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6526 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3591 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 138.90 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9513 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,651.70 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 18.835 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.3485 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.43 Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.03 Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.992 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 220.15 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,348.60 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 3,693.23 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 12,284.19 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,018.60 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 17,933.27 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,676.17 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 7,583.50 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 39.790 Neutral  
    Bayer 49.58 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 168.74 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 130.96 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.674 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 98.63 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 8.632 ↑ Sell  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,540/ 6,640
(6,540/ 6,640) # 1,917
SJC HCM6,580/ 6,660
(0/ 0) # 1,939
SJC Hanoi6,580/ 6,662
(0/ 0) # 1,941
SJC Danang6,580/ 6,662
(0/ 0) # 1,941
SJC Nhatrang6,580/ 6,662
(0/ 0) # 1,941
SJC Cantho6,580/ 6,662
(0/ 0) # 1,941
Cập nhật 25-09-2022 19:10:51
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$1,643.90 -28.95 -1.73%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.26023.720
RON 95-III22.58023.030
E5 RON 92-II21.78022.210
DO 0.05S22.53022.980
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ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $79.32 0 0%
Brent $86.63 0 0%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.535,0023.845,00
EUR22.549,0423.811,27
GBP25.787,1626.886,30
JPY161,93171,43
KRW14,5317,70
Cập nhật lúc 18:39:18 25/09/2022
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