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Goldman Sachs no longer expects recession in euro zone in 2023

Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Goldman Sachs no longer expects recession in euro zone in 2023 © Reuters. The euro sign is photographed in front of the former head quarter of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, April 9, 2019. Picture is taken on slow shutter speed while the camera was moved. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach
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(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday it expects the euro zone economy to grow by 0.6% this year, compared with its previous forecast of a contraction, thanks to a fall in natural gas prices and the reopening of China's borders.

"We maintain our view that Euro area growth will be weak over the winter months given the energy crisis but no longer look for a technical recession," Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) economists led by Sven Jari Stehn said in a note.

The Wall Street bank had in November forecast a 0.1% contraction for the region. A technical recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in gross domestic product (GDP).

Euro zone inflation is expected to be around 3.25% at the end of 2023 compared with 4.50% forecast earlier, the economists said.

In December, consumer price growth across euro zone slowed to 9.2% from 10.1% a month earlier, Eurostat data showed last week.

Core inflation for the region is also seen slowing to 3.3% by the year-end as goods prices cool, but continued upward pressure is expected on services inflation due to rising labour costs, Goldman said.

Given the "sticky" nature of inflation, Goldman expects the European Central Bank to remain hawkish and deliver 50 basis points hikes in February and March before slowing to 25 bps for a terminal rate of 3.25% in May.

For the UK, Goldman sees a smaller contraction of 0.7% in GDP, compared with an earlier expectation for it to shrink by 1%, helped by lower wholesale gas prices.

As the UK labour market remains overheated, the U.S. bank sees another 100 bps worth of hikes by the Bank of England.

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07-02-2023 21:35:30 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD

1.0693

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GBP/USD

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USD/JPY

131.90

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AUD/USD

0.6904

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USD/CAD

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    EUR/USD 1.0693 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.1984 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 131.90 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6904 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3455 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 141.04 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9899 Neutral  
    Gold 1,882.85 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 22.282 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 4.0135 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 74.86 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 81.60 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 2.505 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 176.35 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,196.25 Buy  
    S&P 500 4,099.96 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,282.85 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,855.40 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 21,298.70 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,942.35 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,164.91 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 52.825 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 58.59 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 218.88 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 153.30 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 9.645 Buy  
    Siemens AG 141.35 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.458 Buy  
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