



By Naomi Rovnick, Alun John and Marc Jones
(Reuters) - King Dollar's reign (definitely) coming to an end, bonds bouncing and emerging markets rising again are just some of the trades international money managers are betting on in 2023.
Sky-high inflation and the global gut-punch of nearly 300 central bank interest rate hikes over the last 12 months are putting the focus firmly on how badly economies now buckle, and whether that forces the Federal Reserve and Co to change course.
Here are five trades investors are crowding into.
1/ END OF KING DOLLAR
The dollar index, which measures the performance of the greenback against major peers, gained more than 15% from January to November 2022, as the Fed hiked rates aggressively.
The Fed remains hawkish, but markets are testing its resolve. Joe Little, global chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management, is tipping the dollar index to drop more than 10% in 2023 "based on inflation peaking and a Fed policy shift".
The yen could also be a driving force, after the Bank of Japan sprung a late surprise by abruptly altering the "yield curve control" programme it has used to keep its interest rates close to zero.
"If I had to pick one currency against the dollar, it would be the yen," said Chris Jeffrey, head of rates and inflation strategy at Legal & General Investment Management.
GRAPHIC: The only way is up? (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/gdvzqqwmypw/chart.png)
2/ BUY CHINA
Investors see Chinese equities as a comeback story after a torrid few years, helped by an easing of COVID-19 restrictions, renewed focus on economic growth and shoring up the battered property market.
With COVID deaths rising again uncertainty remains, but the enthusiasm is undoubtedly there for a reopening that also eventually lifts Asian capital markets and deal-making.
MSCI's China index gained nearly 40% from November to mid December but more is possible. BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) reckons travel, domestic consumption and tech shares can rise further and has upgraded China to "overweight" in its 2023 model portfolio, which includes stocks such as Tencent and Trip.com. GRAPHIC: Rebounding China (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/xmpjkkelovr/chart.png) 3/ RE-EMERGING MARKETS Whisper it, but the emerging markets (EM) bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record. With the caveat that global interest rates stabilise, China relaxes COVID restrictions and nuclear war is averted, UBS reckons EM stocks and fixed income indexes could earn between 8-15% in 2023 on a total returns basis. A "bullish" Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) expects a near 17% return on EM local currency debt. Credit Suisse particularly likes hard currency debt and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, AKA the "bond king", has EM stocks as his top pick. Performance following past routs underscores this wave of optimism. MSCI's EM equity index soared 64% in 1999, following the Asian financial crisis, and 75% in 2009. EM hard currency debt saw a whopping 30% rebound too after its 12% global financial crisis drop. GRAPHIC: Submerging markets (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/EMERGING-MARKETS/gkplwwalxvb/chart.png) 4/ HELLO, MR BOND After the worst ever year for bond investors, many see a turnaround. Inflation - the bond market's nemesis because it forces up rates and erodes returns - looks likely to moderate this year as recessions start to bite. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. inflation to decelerate to 3.1% by the end of 2023. Valentine Ainouz, fixed income strategist at the Amundi Institute, predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will end 2023 at 3.5% from around 3.88% currently. Joost van Leenders, senior strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen, bought into Treasuries back in August on the expectation "inflation will come down because economic growth comes down." He remained wary on euro zone bonds with the European Central Bank now backing out of the market and hiking rates. GRAPHIC: Treasuries vs. inflation (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/lgvdkkjxjpo/chart.png) 5/ EQUITIES: SELL NOW, BUY LATER Equity investors hope a V-shaped year for the global economy will see stocks end it comfortably higher. JP Morgan strategists predict "market turmoil and economic decline" to start with, but then a better second half as the Fed finally decides to "pivot". Hani Redha, portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments, anticipates some more downside for U.S. stocks, before a trough some time in the first half of 2023, while Royal London Asset Management's Trevor Greetham thinks it might take longer. "I wouldn’t be surprised if the time to buy equities is a year away or a bit longer," he said. GRAPHIC: Spot the bounce (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/jnpwyyazapw/chart.png)
EUR/USD
1.0466
+0.0001 (+0.01%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (7)
Sell (5)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (2)
EUR/USD
1.0466
+0.0001 (+0.01%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (7)
Sell (5)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (2)
GBP/USD
1.2075
-0.0001 (-0.00%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
USD/JPY
149.15
+0.12 (+0.08%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (2)
AUD/USD
0.6302
0.0001 (0.00%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
USD/CAD
1.3708
0.0001 (0.00%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (6)
EUR/JPY
156.08
+0.11 (+0.07%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (1)
EUR/CHF
0.9639
-0.0001 (-0.01%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (10)
Sell (2)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (1)
Gold Futures
1,840.15
-1.35 (-0.07%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
Silver Futures
21.383
+0.006 (+0.03%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
Copper Futures
3.6158
-0.0012 (-0.03%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
Crude Oil WTI Futures
89.39
+0.16 (+0.18%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (8)
Brent Oil Futures
91.10
+0.39 (+0.43%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (4)
Natural Gas Futures
2.944
+0.002 (+0.07%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (2)
US Coffee C Futures
148.80
-0.30 (-0.20%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (1)
Euro Stoxx 50
4,095.45
-42.18 (-1.02%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (7)
Sell (5)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (5)
S&P 500
4,229.45
-58.94 (-1.37%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (1)
DAX
15,085.21
-162.00 (-1.06%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (2)
Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (7)
FTSE 100
7,470.16
-40.56 (-0.54%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (9)
Hang Seng
17,276.00
-533.66 (-3.00%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (2)
US Small Cap 2000
1,724.80
-32.02 (-1.82%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (5)
IBEX 35
9,165.50
-153.50 (-1.65%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (8)
BASF SE NA O.N.
41.760
-0.130 (-0.31%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (1)
Bayer AG NA
43.88
-0.99 (-2.20%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (3)
Allianz SE VNA O.N.
220.95
-1.75 (-0.79%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (0)
Adidas AG
160.72
-3.88 (-2.36%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (2)
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
7.247
-0.213 (-2.86%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (2)
Siemens AG Class N
133.10
-1.34 (-1.00%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (3)
Deutsche Bank AG
9.931
-0.185 (-1.83%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (10)
Sell (2)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
EUR/USD | 1.0466 | ↑ Buy | |||
GBP/USD | 1.2075 | ↑ Buy | |||
USD/JPY | 149.15 | ↑ Buy | |||
AUD/USD | 0.6302 | ↑ Buy | |||
USD/CAD | 1.3708 | ↑ Sell | |||
EUR/JPY | 156.08 | ↑ Buy | |||
EUR/CHF | 0.9639 | ↑ Buy |
Gold | 1,840.15 | ↑ Buy | |||
Silver | 21.383 | ↑ Buy | |||
Copper | 3.6158 | Buy | |||
Crude Oil WTI | 89.39 | ↑ Sell | |||
Brent Oil | 91.10 | ↑ Buy | |||
Natural Gas | 2.944 | ↑ Buy | |||
US Coffee C | 148.80 | ↑ Buy |
Euro Stoxx 50 | 4,095.45 | Neutral | |||
S&P 500 | 4,229.45 | ↑ Buy | |||
DAX | 15,085.21 | ↑ Sell | |||
FTSE 100 | 7,470.16 | ↑ Sell | |||
Hang Seng | 17,276.00 | ↑ Buy | |||
Small Cap 2000 | 1,724.80 | Neutral | |||
IBEX 35 | 9,165.50 | ↑ Sell |
BASF | 41.760 | ↑ Buy | |||
Bayer | 43.88 | Buy | |||
Allianz | 220.95 | ↑ Buy | |||
Adidas | 160.72 | ↑ Buy | |||
Lufthansa | 7.247 | Buy | |||
Siemens AG | 133.10 | Neutral | |||
Deutsche Bank AG | 9.931 | ↑ Buy |
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC # So hôm qua # Chênh TG | |
---|---|
SJC Eximbank | 6,840/ 6,890 (0/ 0) # 1,489 |
SJC HCM | 6,820/ 6,890 (0/ 0) # 1,490 |
SJC Hanoi | 6,820/ 6,892 (0/ 0) # 1,492 |
SJC Danang | 6,820/ 6,892 (0/ 0) # 1,492 |
SJC Nhatrang | 6,820/ 6,892 (0/ 0) # 1,492 |
SJC Cantho | 6,820/ 6,892 (0/ 0) # 1,492 |
Cập nhật 04-10-2023 06:24:44 | |
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây! |
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới | ||
---|---|---|
$1,823.56 | -2.16 | -0.12% |
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu | ||
---|---|---|
Sản phẩm | Vùng 1 | Vùng 2 |
RON 95-V | 25.370 | 25.870 |
RON 95-III | 24.840 | 25.330 |
E5 RON 92-II | 23.500 | 23.970 |
DO 0.05S | 23.590 | 24.060 |
DO 0,001S-V | 24.450 | 24.930 |
Dầu hỏa 2-K | 23.810 | 24.280 |
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới | |||
---|---|---|---|
WTI | $88.33 | +6.32 | 0.08% |
Brent | $90.65 | +4.99 | 0.06% |
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank | ||
---|---|---|
Ngoại tệ | Mua vào | Bán ra |
USD | 24.180,00 | 24.550,00 |
EUR | 24.859,25 | 26.224,03 |
GBP | 28.671,87 | 29.892,56 |
JPY | 158,19 | 167,45 |
KRW | 15,50 | 18,88 |
Cập nhật lúc 06:15:22 04/10/2023 Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái |