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Davos 2023: Global recession seen likely in 2023 -WEF survey

17 Tháng Giêng 2023
Davos 2023: Global recession seen likely in 2023 -WEF survey © Reuters. A woman walks past the logo of the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2023 at Davos Congress Centre in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland, January 15, 2023. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann

By Mark John

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Two-thirds of private and public sector chief economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) expect a global recession in 2023, the Davos-organiser said on Monday as business and government leaders gathered for its annual meeting.

Some 18% considered a world recession "extremely likely" - more than twice as many as in the previous survey conducted in September 2022. Only one-third of respondents to the survey viewed it as unlikely this year.

"The current high inflation, low growth, high debt and high fragmentation environment reduces incentives for the investments needed to get back to growth and raise living standards for the world's most vulnerable," WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said in a statement accompanying the survey results.

The organisation's survey was based on 22 responses from a group of senior economists drawn from international agencies including the International Monetary Fund, investment banks, multinationals and reinsurance groups.

The survey comes after the World Bank last week slashed its 2023 growth forecasts to levels close to recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia's war in Ukraine continues, and the world's major economic engines sputter.

Definitions of what constitutes recession differ around the world but generally include the prospect of shrinking economies, possibly with high inflation in a "stagflation" scenario.

On inflation, the WEF survey saw large regional variations: the proportion expecting high inflation in 2023 ranged from just 5% for China to 57% for Europe, where the impact of last year's rise in energy prices has spread to the wider economy.

A majority of the economists see further monetary policy tightening in Europe and the United States (59% and 55%, respectively), with policy-makers caught between the risks of tightening too much or too little.

Other main findings of the survey included:

- Nine out of 10 respondents expect both weak demand and high borrowing costs to weigh on firms, with more than 60% also pointing to higher input costs.

- these challenges are expected to lead multinational businesses to cut costs, from reducing operational expenses to laying off workers

- however, supply chain disruptions are not expected to cause a significant drag on business activity in 2023

- the cost-of-living crisis may also be nearing its peak, with a majority (68%) expecting it to have become less severe by the end of 2023.

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31-03-2024 10:19:50 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0793

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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EUR/USD

1.0793

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

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GBP/USD

1.2624

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

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USD/JPY

151.38

0.01 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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AUD/USD

0.6522

+0.0007 (+0.11%)

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USD/CAD

1.3543

+0.0006 (+0.04%)

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EUR/JPY

163.37

+0.12 (+0.07%)

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Indicators:

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EUR/CHF

0.9738

+0.0010 (+0.10%)

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↑ Buy

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Gold Futures

2,254.80

42.10 (1.90%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

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Silver Futures

25.100

+0.002 (+0.01%)

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Copper Futures

4.0115

-0.0003 (-0.01%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.11

+1.76 (+2.16%)

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Brent Oil Futures

86.99

+0.04 (+0.05%)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.752

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US Coffee C Futures

188.53

-2.12 (-1.11%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

5,082.85

+1.11 (+0.02%)

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S&P 500

5,254.35

+5.86 (+0.11%)

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DAX

18,504.51

+27.42 (+0.15%)

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FTSE 100

7,952.62

+20.64 (+0.26%)

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Hang Seng

16,541.42

0.00 (0.00%)

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Neutral

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US Small Cap 2000

2,120.15

+5.80 (+0.27%)

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Neutral

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IBEX 35

11,074.60

-36.70 (-0.33%)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

52.930

-0.320 (-0.60%)

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Bayer AG NA

28.43

+0.01 (+0.04%)

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277.80

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Adidas AG

207.00

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7.281

+0.104 (+1.45%)

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176.96

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14.582

-0.030 (-0.21%)

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 EUR/USD1.0793Sell
 GBP/USD1.2624Sell
 USD/JPY151.38↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6522Sell
 USD/CAD1.3543Buy
 EUR/JPY163.37↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9738↑ Buy
 Gold2,254.80Buy
 Silver25.100↑ Buy
 Copper4.0115↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.11↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.99Neutral
 Natural Gas1.752↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 505,082.85↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,254.35↑ Sell
 DAX18,504.51↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,952.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,120.15Neutral
 IBEX 3511,074.60↑ Sell
 BASF52.930↑ Buy
 Bayer28.43Buy
 Allianz277.80↑ Buy
 Adidas207.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.281↑ Sell
 Siemens AG176.96↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG14.582↑ Buy
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,910/ 8,080
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