

By Steve Scherer and David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Most Canadian businesses expect a mild recession over the next year because higher interest rates are curbing investment plans and consumer spending, while at the same time more see inflation staying high for longer, the Bank of Canada said on Monday.
Business sentiment continued to weaken in the fourth quarter and expectations for slower sales growth increased for a fourth consecutive quarter, according to a quarterly survey. Some two-thirds of firms expect a recession over the next 12 months, with 90% of those expecting it to be mild.
Almost 30% of firms see sales falling over the next year, mainly because of weakening domestic demand. Several businesses said rising interest rates were slowing household demand and housing market activity.
When it hiked rates in December at its last policy meeting to 4.25% - the highest level in almost 15 years - the Bank of Canada said it would study economic data to gauge whether to raise interest rates further.
"The Bank of Canada's aggressive rate hikes through 2022 have clearly weighed on economic sentiment among both businesses and consumers," Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.
"However, still-elevated inflation expectations will keep the Bank on alert. This survey is consistent with our call of a 25 basis-point rate hike at next week’s meeting, after which we anticipate the Bank will hold interest rates steady through the remainder of 2023," she said.
December consumer price figures will be released on Tuesday, and the Bank of Canada will publish new forecasts and its next policy decision on Jan. 25.
The Canadian 2-year yield fell 9.5 basis points to 3.585%, its lowest in more than four months. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3388 to the greenback, or 74.69 U.S. cents.
In his most recent remarks, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem cited the risk of sticky - or persistent - inflation, which might require "much higher" rates.
The survey showed that 84% of firms expect inflation to remain above 3% for the next two years, up from 77% in the third quarter.
Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline prices rose more slowly, still well above the central bank's 2% target, data showed last month.
Around 71.5% of consumers also expect "a mild to moderate recession" and just under half of those expect it to be "moderate in severity and length", according to a separate quarterly survey.
Almost 64% of consumers said they would reduce spending and save more to cope with inflation and rising interest rates. Consumer expectations for inflation one year from now rose to 7.18%, a record, according to the central bank.
EUR/USD
1.0870
-0.0019 (-0.17%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (3)
Sell (9)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (10)
EUR/USD
1.0870
-0.0019 (-0.17%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (3)
Sell (9)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (10)
GBP/USD
1.2392
-0.0014 (-0.11%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (2)
Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (8)
USD/JPY
129.88
-0.32 (-0.25%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (8)
AUD/USD
0.7110
-0.0004 (-0.06%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (1)
USD/CAD
1.3304
-0.0016 (-0.12%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (5)
Sell (7)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
EUR/JPY
141.18
-0.61 (-0.43%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (5)
EUR/CHF
1.0013
-0.0008 (-0.07%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (2)
Gold Futures
1,929.80
-0.20 (-0.01%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (10)
Silver Futures
23.700
-0.320 (-1.33%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (8)
Copper Futures
4.2257
-0.0418 (-0.98%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (8)
Crude Oil WTI Futures
79.48
-1.53 (-1.89%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (4)
Brent Oil Futures
86.37
-1.10 (-1.26%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (8)
Natural Gas Futures
2.875
+0.027 (+0.95%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (1)
US Coffee C Futures
169.25
+2.10 (+1.26%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (7)
Euro Stoxx 50
4,178.01
+4.03 (+0.10%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
S&P 500
4,087.90
+27.47 (+0.68%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (7)
Sell (5)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (7)
DAX
15,150.03
+17.18 (+0.11%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (1)
FTSE 100
7,765.15
+4.04 (+0.05%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
Hang Seng
22,688.90
+122.12 (+0.54%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (2)
US Small Cap 2000
1,915.35
+17.39 (+0.92%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (3)
IBEX 35
9,060.20
+24.60 (+0.27%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (10)
Sell (2)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
BASF SE NA O.N.
52.790
+0.170 (+0.32%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
Bayer AG NA
56.28
+0.24 (+0.43%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (3)
Allianz SE VNA O.N.
221.65
+0.05 (+0.02%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
Adidas AG
148.30
+3.02 (+2.08%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (7)
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
9.755
+0.028 (+0.29%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (9)
Sell (3)
Indicators:
Buy (10)
Sell (0)
Siemens AG Class N
144.50
+0.44 (+0.31%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (10)
Sell (2)
Indicators:
Buy (10)
Sell (1)
Deutsche Bank AG
12.340
+0.208 (+1.71%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
EUR/USD | 1.0870 | ↑ Sell | |||
GBP/USD | 1.2392 | ↑ Sell | |||
USD/JPY | 129.88 | ↑ Sell | |||
AUD/USD | 0.7110 | ↑ Buy | |||
USD/CAD | 1.3304 | Neutral | |||
EUR/JPY | 141.18 | Sell | |||
EUR/CHF | 1.0013 | ↑ Buy |
Gold | 1,929.80 | ↑ Sell | |||
Silver | 23.700 | Sell | |||
Copper | 4.2257 | Sell | |||
Crude Oil WTI | 79.48 | ↑ Sell | |||
Brent Oil | 86.37 | ↑ Sell | |||
Natural Gas | 2.875 | ↑ Buy | |||
US Coffee C | 169.25 | Sell |
Euro Stoxx 50 | 4,178.01 | ↑ Buy | |||
S&P 500 | 4,087.90 | Neutral | |||
DAX | 15,150.03 | ↑ Buy | |||
FTSE 100 | 7,765.15 | ↑ Buy | |||
Hang Seng | 22,688.90 | Buy | |||
Small Cap 2000 | 1,915.35 | Buy | |||
IBEX 35 | 9,060.20 | ↑ Buy |
BASF | 52.790 | ↑ Buy | |||
Bayer | 56.28 | ↑ Buy | |||
Allianz | 221.65 | ↑ Buy | |||
Adidas | 148.30 | Sell | |||
Lufthansa | 9.755 | ↑ Buy | |||
Siemens AG | 144.50 | ↑ Buy | |||
Deutsche Bank AG | 12.340 | ↑ Buy |
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC # So hôm qua # Chênh TG | |
---|---|
SJC Eximbank | 6,720/ 6,820 (0/ 0) # 1,331 |
SJC HCM | 6,750/ 6,850 (0/ 0) # 1,361 |
SJC Hanoi | 6,750/ 6,852 (0/ 0) # 1,363 |
SJC Danang | 6,750/ 6,852 (0/ 0) # 1,363 |
SJC Nhatrang | 6,750/ 6,852 (0/ 0) # 1,363 |
SJC Cantho | 6,750/ 6,852 (0/ 0) # 1,363 |
Cập nhật 28-01-2023 03:24:55 | |
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây! |
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới | ||
---|---|---|
$1,929.89 | -0.68 | -0.04% |
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu | ||
---|---|---|
Sản phẩm | Vùng 1 | Vùng 2 |
RON 95-V | 23.010 | 23.470 |
RON 95-III | 22.150 | 22.590 |
E5 RON 92-II | 21.350 | 21.770 |
DO 0.05S | 21.630 | 22.060 |
DO 0,001S-V | 23.390 | 23.850 |
Dầu hỏa 2-K | 21.800 | 22.230 |
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới | |||
---|---|---|---|
WTI | $79.64 | +1.6 | 1.97% |
Brent | $86.15 | +1.23 | 1.40% |
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank | ||
---|---|---|
Ngoại tệ | Mua vào | Bán ra |
USD | 23.260,00 | 23.630,00 |
EUR | 24.857,55 | 26.249,47 |
GBP | 28.270,18 | 29.475,66 |
JPY | 175,71 | 186,02 |
KRW | 16,43 | 20,02 |
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:25 27/01/2023 Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái |