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Analysis-Bond traders get their swagger back in rate-obsessed markets

17 Tháng Giêng 2023
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By Lananh Nguyen

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bond traders are stars again on Wall Street.

Fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) traders bolstered bank profits last year despite dreary deal markets. And traders who have navigated renewed market volatility are set to extend their winning streak, senior bankers told Reuters.

At Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), FICC revenue jumped 49% to $2.3 billion, lifting the trading division's full-year revenue to the highest since 2010, the bank's earnings report on Friday showed. At Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), revenue from fixed income surged 31% to $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, while at JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) it climbed 12% to $3.7 billion.

"Everybody's a macro trader now," said Jim DeMare, president of Bank of America's global markets division, referring to investors who bet on assets influenced by economic trends.

"Everybody wants to talk about inflation, everybody wants to talk about central bank policy," said DeMare, who formerly worked at Salomon Brothers, the legendary bond shop featured in Michael Lewis' 1989 classic book, "Liar's Poker."

FICC traders are enjoying a renaissance after years in the doldrums. In a throwback to the 1970s inflation is roiling economies again. Protectionism is back. And economic data sends a buzz through trading rooms, minus the shouting of previous eras. "Another strong performance in trading helped make up for the industry-wide decline of investment banking activity," JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto wrote in a note to employees. The bank's markets division posted its second-highest annual revenue on Friday.

Bond specialists in the $22 trillion Treasuries market are in high demand as the Federal Reserve and other central banks have aggressively raised interest rates over the past two years. The traders expect to stay busy as growth slows, the pandemic recedes, fighting continues in Ukraine, and U.S.-China tensions simmer.

Their comeback coincides with economic policy makers dusting off their pre-2008 playbooks. After the financial crisis, central bankers in the United States and advanced economies steadied markets by holding interest rates near zero. But when the pandemic hit, they ramped up stimulus to avoid economic disaster. The reversal of those policies has roiled markets.

"There has been no shortage of extraordinary, once-in-a-generation-type events, responses and implications,"said Ashok Varadhan, co-head of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)' newly merged global banking and markets division in New York. "That's been a catalyst for activity and opportunity" for clients, he said.

Goldman will report earnings later Tuesday.

The S&P 500 stock index fell 19.4% last year, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 3.8%, while the dollar rose 7.9% against major currencies.

On Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ:TW) Inc's electronic bond trading platforms, average daily volumes rose almost 10% in 2022.

"This is the type of market where that old-school fixed income skill set comes into play more than ever," said Billy Hult, who became chief executive this month. Hult gives the company's interns copies of "Liar's Poker" to press his point.

Michael de Pass, head of rates trading at Citadel Securities, sees volatility and activity remaining elevated with participants laser-focused on U.S. inflation data. That has usurped the monthly jobs report as Wall Street's most-watched economic indicator, he said. Citadel Securities will expand into inflation swaps in 2023.

At Jefferies Financial Group Inc, fourth-quarter bond-trading revenue jumped 71%.

"There's money to be made in fixed income again" for bond investors, said Jefferies President Brian Friedman. "Before it was the search for yield; now it's a choice of yield." Fed officials on Thursday expressed relief that inflation eased in December, paving the way for a possible step down to a quarter point interest rate increase when they meet Jan. 31. Markets are watching the Fed closely for signals.

"If you went to any one of our traders right now in any asset class – equities, mortgages, commodities - they would tell you they are trading U.S. interest rates," said Troy Rohrbaugh, global head of markets at JPMorgan, who traded currency options earlier in his career.

"Volumes remained elevated for much of 2022, and investors have been looking for an indication of when inflation is going to turn. When it does, I would expect their risk appetite to immediately increase," Rohrbaugh said.

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27-01-2023 15:04:10 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0877

-0.0012 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0877

-0.0012 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2381

-0.0025 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

129.82

-0.40 (-0.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.7108

-0.0006 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3333

+0.0013 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

EUR/JPY

141.18

-0.61 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

1.0032

+0.0012 (+0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,924.55

-5.45 (-0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Silver Futures

23.802

-0.218 (-0.91%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.2598

-0.0077 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.31

+0.30 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Brent Oil Futures

87.78

+0.31 (+0.35%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

2.816

-0.032 (-1.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

167.20

+4.75 (+2.92%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (2)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,170.25

-3.73 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

4,060.43

+44.21 (+1.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

15,123.85

-9.00 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,769.31

+8.20 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (3)

Hang Seng

22,642.50

+75.72 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

US Small Cap 2000

1,903.06

+12.75 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

9,060.48

+24.88 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.620

0.000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

56.04

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.60

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

147.88

+2.60 (+1.79%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.715

-0.012 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

144.06

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.235

+0.103 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0877 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2381 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 129.82 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.7108 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3333 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 141.18 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 1.0032 Neutral  
    Gold 1,924.55 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.802 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.2598 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.31 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 87.78 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.816 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 167.20 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,170.25 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,060.43 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,123.85 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,769.31 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 22,642.50 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,903.06 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 9,060.48 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 52.620 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 56.04 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.60 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 147.88 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.715 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 144.06 Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.235 ↑ Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
(30/ 30) # 1,347
SJC HCM6,750/ 6,850
(60/ 60) # 1,375
SJC Hanoi6,750/ 6,852
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SJC Danang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,377
SJC Nhatrang6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,377
SJC Cantho6,750/ 6,852
(60/ 60) # 1,377
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$1,923.73 -6.84 -0.35%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
RON 95-III22.15022.590
E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
DO 0,001S-V23.39023.850
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
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WTI $81.35 -0.11 -0.14%
Brent $87.50 -0.12 -0.14%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.250,0023.620,00
EUR24.897,2126.291,37
GBP28.367,7829.577,46
JPY175,76186,07
KRW16,5020,11
Cập nhật lúc 14:58:29 27/01/2023
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