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Yen at its weakest in 50 years in real terms - J.P. Morgan

Thursday, January 6, 2022
Yen at its weakest in 50 years in real terms - J.P. Morgan © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen's real effective rate has tumbled to its lowest level in 50 years and the currency is set to fall even further, slashing Japanese consumers' spending power and raising the risk of capital flight, J.P. Morgan analysts said.

The yen was weakest of G10 currencies last year and its underperformance has continued into 2022 with the nominal exchange rate against the dollar tumbling to a five-year low of 116.3550 this week. It is also near two-month lows to the euro and sterling.

The yen's real effective rate, referenced to consumer price inflation, fell to a low of 66.3 on Tuesday compared to a base of 100 in 2010, which according to J.P. Morgan calculations is likely its lowest since June 1972. The rate measures the weighted average of domestic prices relative to those of Japan's trading partners.

Analysts Tohru Sasaki, Benjamin Shatil and Sosuke Nakamura noted a strong inverse correlation between U.S. long-term interest rates and the yen. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at a nine-month high of 1.7192% on Thursday and J.P. Morgan predicts that the 10-year yield could reach 2% by end-June. If the current correlation holds, the yen could drop past 119 per dollar then, it said.

With companies from sauce manufacturers to stationery makers announcing price hikes in recent months, "the risk of an unexpectedly large rise in Japan's inflation rate cannot be ruled out," they wrote.

Considering that Japanese salaries are no longer high relative to other developed nations, fears that imported goods will become unaffordable may prompt Japanese households to invest offshore - easier than ever before due to online services, they said, which would lead to further yen weakness.

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25-01-2022 09:54:46 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1275

-0.0048 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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EUR/USD

1.1275

-0.0048 (-0.42%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Buy (9)

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GBP/USD

1.3467

-0.0019 (-0.14%)

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Buy (3)

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USD/JPY

113.85

-0.07 (-0.07%)

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AUD/USD

0.7128

-0.0012 (-0.17%)

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USD/CAD

1.2656

+0.0022 (+0.17%)

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EUR/JPY

128.37

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1.0351

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Gold Futures

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Silver Futures

23.887

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Copper Futures

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Brent Oil Futures

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Natural Gas Futures

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US Coffee C Futures

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,054.65

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24,243.61

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1,968.60

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IBEX 35

8,452.12

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Adidas AG

236.45

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.651

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136.56

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10.878

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 EUR/USD1.1275↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3467↑ Sell
 USD/JPY113.85↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7128↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2656↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY128.37↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0351↑ Sell
 Gold1,851.65↑ Buy
 Silver23.887↑ Buy
 Copper4.4290↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI84.00↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.09↑ Buy
 Natural Gas3.852↑ Buy
 US Coffee C237.45↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,054.65↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,302.72↑ Sell
 DAX15,030.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,331.43↑ Sell
 Hang Seng24,243.61↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,968.60↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,452.12↑ Sell
 BASF65.100↑ Sell
 Bayer50.55↑ Sell
 Allianz218.65↑ Sell
 Adidas236.45↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.651↑ Sell
 Siemens AG136.56↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.878↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,195/ 6,245
(25/ 35) # 1,202
SJC HCM6,190/ 6,255
(40/ 45) # 1,211
SJC Hanoi6,190/ 6,257
(40/ 45) # 1,213
SJC Danang6,190/ 6,257
(40/ 45) # 1,213
SJC Nhatrang6,190/ 6,257
(40/ 45) # 1,213
SJC Cantho6,190/ 6,257
(40/ 45) # 1,213
Cập nhật 25-01-2022 09:54:48
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JPY192,65203,94
KRW16,3519,92
Cập nhật lúc 18:49:50 25/01/2022
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