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Weekly Comic: Russia Puts the Squeeze on Europe's Gas

22 Tháng Sáu 2022
Weekly Comic: Russia Puts the Squeeze on Europe's Gas © Investing.com

By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com -- Europe’s economic war with Russia over Ukraine has taken a sharp turn for the worse. It will take a miracle to stop it deteriorating further – and to protect the rest of the world from the fallout.

Over the last week, Russia has steadily turned off the gas taps to Europe, its biggest customer for the last 40 years. Germany has seen its supplies cut by 60%, Italy by 50%, France by 100%.

A relationship that has often been uneasy but always mutually beneficial is now in tatters. Moscow is making no secret of the fact that it considers the weaponization of energy supplies not only legitimate but expedient.

Indeed, Russia seems happy to leverage its position as a key exporter in many global commodities markets, confident that it can shift the blame for suffering to others. Margarita Simonyan, editor in chief of the RT news channel that has now been effectively shut down in Europe and the U.S., joked at a conference last week that “everyone is pinning their hopes famine now, because when famine strikes, they will realize that they have to be friends with us and the sanctions will be lifted.”

For its part, Europe is signalling that it has given up on any hope of economic relations with what had been its biggest energy supplier until March. The outlook for its economy is withering accordingly, and the euro's exchange rate has started to reflect fears of stagflation. Europe has accepted that it will not only have to pay higher prices for its energy for the foreseeable future, but also effectively suspend its contribution to slowing global climate change, a serious blow to the - admittedly narcissistic - self-image it has cultivated for the last three decades.

Germany, Austria and the Netherlands have all signalled they will restart coal-fired power stations this year in order to replace gas-fired generation. German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck – who owes his place in government largely to a successful pressure campaign to shut down coal-fired power in Germany – called the move “bitter.” The news only just took the edge off benchmark European gas prices this week, which remain at over five times their level of early 2021.

As the market reaction suggests, even that may not be enough to avoid outright gas rationing in Europe later this year. Gazprom’s action forced European utilities last week to burn gas that they had put into storage for the winter, putting an abrupt end to the usual injection season. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage facilities were currently 54.7% full at the weekend. That’s more or less in line with seasonal norms, but still means a lot of gas needs to be found by September if Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) – which usually supplies 25% of the bloc’s needs – isn’t playing ball.

The escalation has continued into this week, as Lithuania – with the explicit backing of the EU - has stopped the transit of sanctioned goods by rail across its territory between the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad and the rest of the Russian Federation, dealing a serious blow to a local economy already hit hard by the collapse of trade with its neighbors. The force of that action will increase as the EU’s list of sanctions extends to such goods as coal and fuel later in the year.

Many in the Kremlin – let alone the pundits on Russian state television’s toxic talk shows redolent with puerile bravado - would see that as a brazen challenge, an invitation to restore links by force. Nikolay Patrushev, the former FSB head who now chairs Russia’s Security Council, promised a response that would have “serious negative consequences for the population of Lithuania.”

However, Lithuania – in contrast to Ukraine – is both a member of the European Union and, more importantly, NATO, its sovereignty guaranteed ultimately by the nuclear arsenals of three permanent members of the UN Security Council. For all the reckless miscalculations of Vladimir Putin’s regime over recent years, an outright attack on NATO is still – at least for now – unthinkable.

One ought, perhaps, to be grateful for small mercies. However, what has happened over the last week has entrenched divisions. Both sides obviously remain determined to securing something they can call victory. That means months, if not years, more misery for the people of Ukraine, and economic distress for Europe and all those in Africa and Asia who need grain from the Black Sea basin to feed their populations. Cold comfort indeed.

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30-06-2022 23:26:12 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0476

+0.0037 (+0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0476

+0.0037 (+0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2170

+0.0044 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

135.66

-0.92 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6914

+0.0033 (+0.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.2869

-0.0022 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

142.11

-0.47 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

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EUR/CHF

0.9995

+0.0024 (+0.24%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,811.65

-5.85 (-0.32%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

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Silver Futures

20.378

-0.360 (-1.74%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Buy (10)

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Copper Futures

3.7222

-0.0583 (-1.54%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

107.41

-2.37 (-2.16%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

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Brent Oil Futures

110.65

-1.80 (-1.60%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

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Natural Gas Futures

5.745

-0.753 (-11.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

US Coffee C Futures

230.17

+1.92 (+0.84%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,454.86

-59.46 (-1.69%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

3,812.10

-6.73 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

12,783.77

-219.58 (-1.69%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

FTSE 100

7,169.28

-143.04 (-1.96%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

21,859.79

-137.10 (-0.62%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

US Small Cap 2000

1,717.70

+4.38 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,098.70

-89.30 (-1.09%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

BASF SE NA O.N.

41.525

-0.055 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

56.72

-0.90 (-1.56%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

182.12

-1.60 (-0.87%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

168.76

-1.26 (-0.74%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.564

-0.249 (-4.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

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Siemens AG Class N

97.09

-4.31 (-4.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.318

-0.253 (-2.95%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

 EUR/USD1.0476↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2170↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.66↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6914↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2869↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY142.11↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9995↑ Buy
 Gold1,811.65Neutral
 Silver20.378↑ Buy
 Copper3.7222↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI107.41↑ Buy
 Brent Oil110.65↑ Buy
 Natural Gas5.745↑ Sell
 US Coffee C230.17Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,454.86↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,812.10↑ Buy
 DAX12,783.77Neutral
 FTSE 1007,169.28Sell
 Hang Seng21,859.79Sell
 Small Cap 20001,717.70↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,098.70Sell
 BASF41.525↑ Buy
 Bayer56.72Neutral
 Allianz182.12Sell
 Adidas168.76Buy
 Lufthansa5.564↑ Buy
 Siemens AG97.09↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.318Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,810/ 6,870
(5/ 5) # 1,764
SJC HCM6,830/ 6,890
(10/ 0) # 1,783
SJC Hanoi6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Danang6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Nhatrang6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Cantho6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
Cập nhật 30-06-2022 23:26:14
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,811.13-7.93-0.44%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
DO 0.05S30.01030.610
DO 0,001S-V30.81031.420
Dầu hỏa 2-K28.78029.350
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Brent$110.35+0.010.01%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.105,0023.415,00
EUR23.704,3925.032,07
GBP27.520,9428.694,87
JPY165,73175,46
KRW15,5118,90
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:16 30/06/2022
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