Warning signs for global recovery as Delta dims outlook

22 Tháng Bảy 2021
Warning signs for global recovery as Delta dims outlook © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: People carry Primark shopping bags after retail restrictions due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) eased, in Belfast, Northern Ireland, May 4, 2021. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo

By Saikat Chatterjee and Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON (Reuters) - A drubbing in world equity markets and a huge flight to safety into U.S. Treasuries this week suggests investors now doubt that a much-anticipated return to post-COVID normality is feasible any time soon.

Data from the United States and China, which account for more than half of world growth, suggests a slowdown in the recent blistering pace of the global economy alongside rising prices for all manner of goods and raw materials.

Coinciding with a resurgence in the Delta variant of COVID-19, markets may be sending alarm signals about the global economic outlook, Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) chief FX strategist George Saravelos told clients.

"As prices have risen, the consumer has been cutting back demand rather than bringing forward consumption. This is the opposite of what one would expect if the environment was genuinely inflationary and it shows the global economy has a very low speed limit," Saravelos wrote.

Graphic: Consumer sentiment dives as COVID cases tick up: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpezggjzvr/Pasted%20image%201626784478148.png

That sentiment was evident in the latest flow data too. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) Merill Lynch flagged "stagflation" concerns for the second half of 2021, noting slowing inflows into stocks and outflows from high-yield assets.

1/ DOLLAR REFUGE

Data on hedge funds' weekly currency positioning is the closest available real-time indicator of investors' thinking about the $6.6 trillion a day foreign exchange markets.

With the dollar at its highest since end-March, latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows net long positions on the dollar against a basket of major currencies is the biggest since March 2020. Positioning had dropped to a net short bet as recently as early June.

Dollar appreciation against the euro and emerging market currencies is unsurprising given economic uncertainty, said Ludovic Colin, senior portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management.

"Whenever Americans get worried about growth at home or globally, they repatriate money and buy dollars," he added.

Graphic: Long U.S. dollar bets rise to highest since June 2020: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzyrrbxvw/Pasted%20image%201626783771326.png

2/LESS VALUE

In recent months, investors optimistic about an economic recovery sent a flood of cash into so-called cyclical sectors such as banks, leisure and energy. These are, in short, companies that benefit from an economic recovery.

The tide may now be going out.

Instead "growth" stocks, especially technology, has outperformed its value counterparts by more than 3 percentage points since the start of July. Many clients of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) believe the cyclical rotation was a short-lived phenomenon driven by recovery from an unusual recession, the bank said.

Defensive stocks such as utilities are back in favour too. A basket of value stocks compiled by MSCI is testing its lowest levels for this year against defensive peers, having risen 11% in the first six months of 2021.

Graphic: Defensives back in flavour as reflation bets fade: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znvneddnrpl/Pasted%20image%201626783548974.png

3/ FALLING YIELDS

Early this year, the dollar's trajectory was determined by the interest rate differentials enjoyed by U.S. debt over its rivals, with correlations peaking in May.

While real or inflation-adjusted U.S. yields are still higher than their German counterparts, the drop in nominal U.S. yields below 1.2% this week has raised concern over the global growth outlook.

Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX at Commerzbank (DE:CBKG), said that if global production and consumption did not return to 2019 levels soon, then a permanently lower GDP path has to be assumed. This is reflected to some extent in bond markets.

Graphic: Dollar decouples from rates as risk sentiment sours: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mopanmmdrva/Pasted%20image%201626783359105.png

4/INVESTORS GLOOMIER?

Investor sentiment has become more cautious, according to weekly polls by the American Association of Individual Investors. BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), the world's biggest investment manager, cut U.S. equities to neutral in its mid-year outlook.

Stephen Jen, who runs hedge fund Eurizon SLJ Capital, noted that because China's business cycle was ahead of that of the United States or Europe, weaker data there is filtering through to investor sentiment in the West.

Graphic: Investor sentiment declines from 2021 highs: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkplgmmazvb/Pasted%20image%201626783265553.png

5/COMMODITY WORRIES

Popular reflation trades in the commodity markets have also gone into reverse. A ratio of gold/copper prices has fallen 10% after rising to more than 6-1/2 year highs in May.

Graphic: Copper/gold ratio dips after highs in May: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byprjojrgpe/Pasted%20image%201626856704647.png

(This story refiles to fix repetition in first paragraph)

Để lại bình luận
27-07-2021 20:11:01 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1819

+0.0020 (+0.17%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.1819

+0.0020 (+0.17%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.3822

+0.0006 (+0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

109.89

-0.46 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.7376

-0.0004 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.2557

+0.0016 (+0.13%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

129.89

-0.30 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

1.0804

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Gold Futures

1,804.10

+4.90 (+0.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

25.207

-0.111 (-0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.6007

+0.0157 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

71.97

+0.06 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Brent Oil Futures

73.81

+0.11 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

4.018

-0.064 (-1.57%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

204.90

-2.90 (-1.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,082.07

-20.52 (-0.50%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,422.30

+10.51 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

15,551.80

-67.18 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,000.95

-24.48 (-0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

25,060.87

-1159.13 (-4.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,216.03

+6.38 (+0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,678.00

-97.20 (-1.11%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

67.060

-0.480 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

50.52

-0.88 (-1.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

209.62

-1.28 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

311.65

-0.30 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.936

+0.089 (+0.90%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Siemens AG Class N

132.86

-1.70 (-1.26%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.545

-0.115 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

 EUR/USD1.1819Neutral
 GBP/USD1.3822Sell
 USD/JPY109.89↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7376Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2557Buy
 EUR/JPY129.89↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0804↑ Sell
 Gold1,804.10Neutral
 Silver25.207↑ Sell
 Copper4.6007↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI71.97↑ Sell
 Brent Oil73.81↑ Sell
 Natural Gas4.018Neutral
 US Coffee C204.90↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,082.07Neutral
 S&P 5004,422.30↑ Buy
 DAX15,551.80↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,000.95↑ Buy
 Hang Seng25,060.87↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,216.03↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,678.00Buy
 BASF67.060↑ Buy
 Bayer50.52↑ Buy
 Allianz209.62↑ Buy
 Adidas311.65↑ Buy
 Lufthansa9.936↑ Sell
 Siemens AG132.86Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.545↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,660/ 5,715
(-5/ -5) # 712
SJC HCM5,660/ 5,730
(-20/ -15) # 728
SJC Hanoi5,660/ 5,732
(-20/ -15) # 730
SJC Danang5,660/ 5,732
(-20/ -15) # 730
SJC Nhatrang5,660/ 5,732
(-20/ -15) # 730
SJC Cantho5,660/ 5,732
(-20/ -15) # 730
Cập nhật 27-07-2021 20:11:03
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2178022210
RON 95-II,III2168022110
E5 RON 92-II2049020890
DO 0.05S1637016690
DO 0,001S-V1672017050
Dầu hỏa1539015690
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.880,0023.110,00
EUR26.476,7927.854,49
GBP31.000,6032.295,52
JPY203,52214,19
KRW17,3221,08
Cập nhật lúc 18:50:40 27/07/2021
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