LONDON (Reuters) - British consumer price inflation will reach 3.9% early next year, almost double the Bank of England's target, but should fall back to 2% the year after if the BoE begins to raise interest rates, a leading think tank forecast on Monday.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) also revised up its growth forecast for 2021 by 1.1 percentage points to 6.8% - broadly in with the most recent forecasts from the BoE and the International Monetary Fund.
After suffering its biggest economic slump in over 300 years in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, Britain's economy has been recovering rapidly this year.
But a sharp rise in oil prices and bottlenecks in supply chains have pushed up inflation in Britain and most other Western economies, with NIESR's forecast suggesting British inflation is on course to hit its highest since late 2011.
"To prevent a possible dislodging of inflation expectations, the MPC should prepare the ground for normalising its monetary policy stance, and this involves clearly communicating how Bank Rate and asset purchases and will be adjusted in response to higher inflation," NIESR Deputy Director Hande Kucuk said.
The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee should emphasise that policy tightening would be gradual, to avoid a sudden tightening of financing conditions that could derail recovery, she added.
Unemployment was likely to rise by 150,000 to 5.4% of the workforce after the government's furlough programme stopped at the end of September, NIESR said.
The BoE will set out new growth and inflation forecasts on Thursday, and many economists expect it to update guidance about when it might consider beginning to reverse quantitative easing bond purchases.
However, the central bank is still buying bonds to hit an 895 billion pond asset purchase target it set in November last year. Financial markets price in a first 15 basis point rise in rates to 0.25% by August of next year, though most economists think the BoE will take longer.
The BoE's last full set of forecasts in May predicted inflation would peak at 2.5% at the end of this year, but in June it revised this higher to see a peak of more than 3%.
EUR/USD
1.0793
+0.0006 (+0.06%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (5)
EUR/USD
1.0793
+0.0006 (+0.06%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (5)
GBP/USD
1.2624
+0.0002 (+0.02%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (6)
USD/JPY
151.38
0.01 (0.00%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (1)
AUD/USD
0.6522
+0.0007 (+0.11%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (3)
USD/CAD
1.3543
+0.0006 (+0.04%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (1)
EUR/JPY
163.37
+0.12 (+0.07%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (3)
Sell (9)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (8)
EUR/CHF
0.9738
+0.0010 (+0.10%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (2)
Gold Futures
2,254.80
42.10 (1.90%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (0)
Silver Futures
25.100
+0.002 (+0.01%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
Copper Futures
4.0115
-0.0003 (-0.01%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
Crude Oil WTI Futures
83.11
+1.76 (+2.16%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
Brent Oil Futures
86.99
+0.04 (+0.05%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (3)
Natural Gas Futures
1.752
+0.034 (+1.98%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (5)
Sell (7)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (6)
US Coffee C Futures
188.53
-2.12 (-1.11%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (9)
Euro Stoxx 50
5,082.85
+1.11 (+0.02%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (6)
S&P 500
5,254.35
+5.86 (+0.11%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (8)
DAX
18,504.51
+27.42 (+0.15%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
FTSE 100
7,952.62
+20.64 (+0.26%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (10)
Hang Seng
16,541.42
0.00 (0.00%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (1)
US Small Cap 2000
2,120.15
+5.80 (+0.27%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (4)
IBEX 35
11,074.60
-36.70 (-0.33%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (5)
BASF SE NA O.N.
52.930
-0.320 (-0.60%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (9)
Sell (3)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (1)
Bayer AG NA
28.43
+0.01 (+0.04%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
Allianz SE VNA O.N.
277.80
+0.35 (+0.13%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
Adidas AG
207.00
+2.30 (+1.12%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (0)
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
7.281
+0.104 (+1.45%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (6)
Siemens AG Class N
176.96
+0.04 (+0.02%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (10)
Sell (0)
Deutsche Bank AG
14.582
-0.030 (-0.21%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
EUR/USD | 1.0793 | Sell | |||
GBP/USD | 1.2624 | Sell | |||
USD/JPY | 151.38 | ↑ Buy | |||
AUD/USD | 0.6522 | Sell | |||
USD/CAD | 1.3543 | Buy | |||
EUR/JPY | 163.37 | ↑ Sell | |||
EUR/CHF | 0.9738 | ↑ Buy |
Gold | 2,254.80 | Buy | |||
Silver | 25.100 | ↑ Buy | |||
Copper | 4.0115 | ↑ Buy | |||
Crude Oil WTI | 83.11 | ↑ Buy | |||
Brent Oil | 86.99 | Neutral | |||
Natural Gas | 1.752 | ↑ Sell | |||
US Coffee C | 188.53 | ↑ Sell |
Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,082.85 | ↑ Sell | |||
S&P 500 | 5,254.35 | ↑ Sell | |||
DAX | 18,504.51 | ↑ Buy | |||
FTSE 100 | 7,952.62 | ↑ Sell | |||
Hang Seng | 16,541.42 | Neutral | |||
Small Cap 2000 | 2,120.15 | Neutral | |||
IBEX 35 | 11,074.60 | ↑ Sell |
BASF | 52.930 | ↑ Buy | |||
Bayer | 28.43 | Buy | |||
Allianz | 277.80 | ↑ Buy | |||
Adidas | 207.00 | ↑ Buy | |||
Lufthansa | 7.281 | ↑ Sell | |||
Siemens AG | 176.96 | ↑ Buy | |||
Deutsche Bank AG | 14.582 | ↑ Buy |
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC # So hôm qua # Chênh TG | |
---|---|
SJC Eximbank | 7,910/ 8,080 (7,910/ 8,080) # 1,364 |
SJC HCM | 7,830/ 8,080 (0/ 0) # 1,364 |
SJC Hanoi | 7,830/ 8,082 (0/ 0) # 1,366 |
SJC Danang | 7,830/ 8,082 (0/ 0) # 1,366 |
SJC Nhatrang | 7,830/ 8,082 (0/ 0) # 1,366 |
SJC Cantho | 7,830/ 8,082 (0/ 0) # 1,366 |
Cập nhật 31-03-2024 10:19:52 | |
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây! |
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới | ||
---|---|---|
$2,232.75 | -1.61 | -0.07% |
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu | ||
---|---|---|
Sản phẩm | Vùng 1 | Vùng 2 |
RON 95-V | 24.690 | 25.180 |
RON 95-III | 24.280 | 24.760 |
E5 RON 92-II | 23.210 | 23.670 |
DO 0.05S | 21.010 | 21.430 |
DO 0,001S-V | 21.640 | 22.070 |
Dầu hỏa 2-K | 21.260 | 21.680 |
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới | |||
---|---|---|---|
WTI | $82.82 | +5.39 | 0.07% |
Brent | $86.82 | +5.18 | 0.06% |
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank | ||
---|---|---|
Ngoại tệ | Mua vào | Bán ra |
USD | 24.600,00 | 24.970,00 |
EUR | 26.020,03 | 27.447,78 |
GBP | 30.490,41 | 31.787,64 |
JPY | 158,93 | 168,22 |
KRW | 15,91 | 19,28 |
Cập nhật lúc 10:12:31 31/03/2024 Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái |