UK economic recovery to continue but new COVID-19 strains a threat: Reuters poll

Friday, July 16, 2021
UK economic recovery to continue but new COVID-19 strains a threat: Reuters poll © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of a deserted street in Hemel Hempstead, Britain, January 5, 2021. REUTERS/Matthew Childs

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's economy will expand rapidly this quarter as additional coronavirus-related restrictions are lifted and further pent-up demand is unleashed, a Reuters poll found, but growth is at risk from new variants of COVID-19.

The country has suffered the highest death toll in Europe from the pandemic but a fast-moving vaccine rollout has allowed the government to withdraw many of the lockdown restrictions, with more set to lifted on Monday.

Gross domestic product will grow 2.5% this quarter, the July 12-15 poll found, a touch better than the 2.4% predicted last month. But medians showed that pace was expected to slow to 1.4% next quarter and then to 0.9% in early 2022, unchanged from last month's forecasts.

"So far, the UK data look promising in two respects. First, vaccines seem to have significantly reduced the health risks from the virus," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.

"Second, the UK's GDP estimate for May shows that activity has rebounded with the easing of restrictions."

GDP expanded a monthly 0.8% in May, much faster than its typical pre-pandemic pace but down from April's 2.0% surge, official data showed last week.

On an annual basis, growth was pegged at 6.7% this year - much stronger than the 6.2% predicted last month - and an unchanged 5.2% in 2022.

Graphic: Reuters poll graphics on the UK inflation, monetary policy and economic growth outlook - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/nmopaxggbva/UK%20graphics.PNG

But when asked what was the biggest threat to those buoyant numbers over 70% of respondents said the spread of new variants of COVID-19.

"COVID-19 cases are rising quickly again and are showing few signs of slowing. With infection numbers doubling every 8-9 days, daily cases above 100,000 are entirely possible in the coming weeks," said James Smith, an economist at ING.

"Rising COVID-19 prevalence also means higher rates of contact tracing and self-isolation. These risks amplifying the current worker shortage in some of the consumer services industries, but could also see consumers reducing social contacts to mitigate the risk of having to stay at home for 10 days."

PRICE PRESSURES

Like its peers, Britain has faced steep inflationary pressures as supply chains disrupted by the pandemic and increased demand have led to price rises.

Inflation was expected to average 2.2% this quarter and peak at 2.7% next quarter. However, that upswing is likely to be transitory and is driven by the pandemic-induced low base of last year.

So while those forecasts are well above the Bank of England's 2% inflation target the central bank was not expected to increase borrowing costs from their record low of 0.10% until 2023.

None of the 82 economists polled expected a change when the Bank announces is next policy review on August 5.

Graphic: Reuters poll graphics on the UK economic outlook - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/jznvnyrropl/BoE%20final%20-%20July%202021.PNG

BoE interest rate-setter Michael Saunders said on Thursday the central bank could decide to stop its current programme of government bond purchases early due to an unexpectedly sharp rise in inflation, a day after another top BoE official said the time for action might be approaching.

"There is a risk, however, that inflation strength will prove more persistent, which may put more pressure on the BoE to tighten policy," said Chris Hare, senior economist at HSBC.

"There are genuine supply-demand imbalances which have become apparent during the economic reopening, which we think could persist or even build in the near term."

Leave your comment
28-07-2021 14:08:53 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1810

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.1810

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.3885

+0.0011 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

109.83

+0.07 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.7355

-0.0005 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

USD/CAD

1.2580

-0.0020 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

129.71

+0.04 (+0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

1.0809

+0.0007 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Gold Futures

1,804.55

+4.75 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Silver Futures

24.858

+0.209 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

4.5525

-0.0073 (-0.16%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

72.06

+0.41 (+0.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

73.87

+0.35 (+0.48%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

Natural Gas Futures

3.889

-0.029 (-0.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

204.93

-2.87 (-1.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,072.93

+8.10 (+0.20%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,401.46

-20.84 (-0.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

15,545.10

+25.97 (+0.17%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

6,994.25

-1.83 (-0.03%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

25,408.37

+347.50 (+1.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,189.73

-27.19 (-1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,703.00

+3.80 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

66.890

-0.170 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

50.41

-0.18 (-0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

211.10

+0.82 (+0.39%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

309.27

+0.27 (+0.09%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

10.001

+0.097 (+0.98%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

132.81

-0.52 (-0.39%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.966

+0.361 (+3.40%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

 EUR/USD1.1810Neutral
 GBP/USD1.3885↑ Buy
 USD/JPY109.83↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7355↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2580↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY129.71Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0809↑ Sell
 Gold1,804.55↑ Buy
 Silver24.858↑ Buy
 Copper4.5525Sell
 Crude Oil WTI72.06↑ Buy
 Brent Oil73.87Neutral
 Natural Gas3.889↑ Sell
 US Coffee C204.93↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,072.93Buy
 S&P 5004,401.46↑ Buy
 DAX15,545.10Buy
 FTSE 1006,994.25Sell
 Hang Seng25,408.37↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,189.73↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,703.00↑ Buy
 BASF66.890↑ Buy
 Bayer50.41Neutral
 Allianz211.10Neutral
 Adidas309.27Sell
 Lufthansa10.001↑ Buy
 Siemens AG132.81↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.966Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,660/ 5,715
(0/ 0) # 689
SJC HCM5,650/ 5,720
(-10/ -10) # 695
SJC Hanoi5,650/ 5,722
(-10/ -10) # 697
SJC Danang5,650/ 5,722
(-10/ -10) # 697
SJC Nhatrang5,650/ 5,722
(-10/ -10) # 697
SJC Cantho5,650/ 5,722
(-10/ -10) # 697
Cập nhật 28-07-2021 14:08:55
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,804.25+4.370.24%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2178022210
RON 95-II,III2168022110
E5 RON 92-II2049020890
DO 0.05S1637016690
DO 0,001S-V1672017050
Dầu hỏa1539015690
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$71.86-0.09-0.12%
Brent$73.84-0.09-0.13%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.880,0023.110,00
EUR26.503,7027.882,80
GBP31.128,4532.428,70
JPY204,22214,93
KRW17,2420,98
Cập nhật lúc 14:04:54 28/07/2021
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái