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Trust Dollar Rally for Now, But Bears Will Be Back

By Yasin Ebrahim AiVIF.com – The dollar's sunny days are set to continue for quite a while, but the Fed's path will eventually turn murky again to bring the bears out of...
Trust Dollar Rally for Now, But Bears Will Be Back © Reuters.

By Yasin Ebrahim

AiVIF.com – The dollar's sunny days are set to continue for quite a while, but the Fed's path will eventually turn murky again to bring the bears out of hiding.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.35% to 92.2, and looks set to notch a third-weekly gain.

“Admittedly, the current moderate USD strength may continue for quite a while,” Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said in a note. The positive remarks come just days after the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate on hold, but released projections showing rate hikes in 2023.

“After publication of the latest FOMC projections, the dollar was able to gain significantly,” [even as] the OIS market has been pricing in a first Fed rate hike in 2023 for some time,“ Commerzbank said.

But liftoff could occur even sooner, according to St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard.

“I put us starting in late 2022,” Bullard said Friday during a TV interview on CNBC. "[M]y forecast said 3% inflation in 2021 -- core PCE inflation -- and 2.5% core PCE inflation in 2022."

"To me, that would meet our new framework where we said we’re going to allow inflation to run above target for some time, and from there we could bring inflation down to 2% over the subsequent horizon," he added.

The hawkish tone from Bullard didn’t spook the bond market as the bid remained in place, but yields are expected to eventually move higher, albeit gradually, and that will add another tailwind for the greenback.

“We expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to gradually rise into the 2.25% to 2.75% range by YE 2022 from the current 1.5%,” Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) said in a note.

“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s near-zero fed funds interest rate target is unlikely to change over the coming 18 months, but at some point during this time period, our central bankers will likely start to hint that they will begin reducing (or “tapering” in Fed-speak) the amount of bonds they are buying in the open market each month from the current $120 billion,” it added.

But for those hoping this could be end of the bear market for the dollar, think again. The dollar’s fate is tied to the Fed’s policy measures and the central bank’s outlook on inflation. This outlook may need to be revised when winter comes calling as the inflationary pressures could abate.

“Only when inflationary pressures ease significantly again in the fall and winter […] should the Fed start to worry again that permanent re-inflation might not materialize after all,” Commerzbank said. “This should make Fed normalization seem less certain again and weigh on the dollar again. We expect the dollar to weaken again from then on.”

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29-03-2024 09:01:47 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0776

-0.0011 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

EUR/USD

1.0776

-0.0011 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

GBP/USD

1.2622

0.0001 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

151.32

-0.05 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.6518

+0.0003 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3539

0.0001 (0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

163.06

-0.19 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

0.9724

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

2,254.80

-0.10 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

25.100

+0.002 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.0115

-0.0003 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.11

+1.76 (+2.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

86.99

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

1.752

+0.034 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

188.53

-2.12 (-1.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,082.85

+1.11 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

5,254.35

+5.86 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (8)

DAX

18,504.51

+27.42 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,952.62

+20.64 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Hang Seng

16,541.42

+148.58 (+0.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,120.15

+5.80 (+0.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

11,074.60

-36.70 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.930

-0.320 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

28.43

+0.01 (+0.04%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

277.80

+0.35 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

207.00

+2.30 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.281

+0.104 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

176.96

+0.04 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

14.582

-0.030 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0776↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2622↑ Sell
 USD/JPY151.32↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6518↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3539Sell
 EUR/JPY163.06↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9724Buy
 Gold2,254.80↑ Buy
 Silver25.100↑ Buy
 Copper4.0115↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.11↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.99Neutral
 Natural Gas1.752↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 505,082.85↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,254.35↑ Sell
 DAX18,504.51↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,952.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,120.15Neutral
 IBEX 3511,074.60↑ Sell
 BASF52.930↑ Buy
 Bayer28.43Buy
 Allianz277.80↑ Buy
 Adidas207.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.281↑ Sell
 Siemens AG176.96↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG14.582↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,930/ 8,100
(50/ 50) # 1,387
SJC HCM7,950/ 8,150
(50/ 50) # 1,437
SJC Hanoi7,950/ 8,152
(50/ 50) # 1,439
SJC Danang7,950/ 8,152
(50/ 50) # 1,439
SJC Nhatrang7,950/ 8,152
(50/ 50) # 1,439
SJC Cantho7,950/ 8,152
(50/ 50) # 1,439
Cập nhật 29-03-2024 09:01:57
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,232.75+41.731.90%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.69025.180
RON 95-III24.28024.760
E5 RON 92-II23.21023.670
DO 0.05S21.01021.430
DO 0,001S-V21.64022.070
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.26021.680
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$82.82+5.390.07%
Brent$86.82+5.180.06%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.590,0024.960,00
EUR26.048,1827.477,49
GBP30.475,6931.772,32
JPY158,73168,01
KRW15,8919,26
Cập nhật lúc 08:57:20 29/03/2024
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