Take Five: ECB, earnings galore and 'Freedom Day'

Friday, July 16, 2021
Take Five: ECB, earnings galore and 'Freedom Day' © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, March 12, 2016. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

(Reuters) - 1/ ECB DAY

Two weeks after unveiling its closely anticipated strategy review, the ECB will face questions at its Thursday meeting on what its new 2% inflation target might mean for policy.

If the ECB is serious about boosting inflation to 2% (versus close to but below 2% before), surely hefty bond buying will continue for some time? Doves are already arguing that to remain credible, the ECB needs to highlight its room for manoeuvre.

The hawks though are already pressing for tapering stimulus as the economy rebounds. Perhaps concern about a resurgent coronavirus hurting growth will allow ECB chief Christine Lagarde to find common ground at Thursday's meeting. A quiet summer may be around the corner for most, not the ECB.

Reuters poll graphic on euro zone economic outlook: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/yxmvjzxdjvr/ECB%20final%20July%202021.PNG

2/ OUTLIER

Many developed economies are pondering tapering emergency stimulus but China has just added more money to its banking system and there's an outside chance the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) set by Chinese banks could be lowered as early as Tuesday.

The dual-track economy is seeing supply-side headwinds, growth and exports are peaking, while consumer spending flags. An uncertain regulatory environment for big firms and standoffs with the United States are weighing on investor sentiment.

After the recent cut to banks' reserve requirements and data showing the economy lost some steam in the second quarter, markets expect a bit of monetary easing even as fiscal policy stays tight.

Graphic: China GDP & rates - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yzdpxlzzgpx/Pasted%20image%201626342515440.png

3/ FIRST FAANG

The second-quarter U.S. earnings season kicked off with stronger-than-expected numbers from banks, now it's the turn of the tech and consumer giants, including streaming heavyweight Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).

A darling of last year's stay-at-home trade, Netflix shares are up just 2% this year as investors have shifted to stocks which benefit as the economy reopens. Lower production of TV shows and movies during COVID-19 have dented subscriber growth.

Signs U.S. economic growth has peaked have nevertheless been boosting the tech stocks that led markets for much of the past decade so Netflix shares too have rallied of late.

The coming days also see quarterly results from the likes of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Twitter and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).

Graphic: "FAANG" stocks in 2021 - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/NETFLIX/rlgpdrywxpo/chart.png

4/ AS GOOD AS IT GETS?

Europe's results season is starting in earnest, meanwhile, and corporate earnings are expected to have more than doubled in Q2.

Profits of the 600 biggest listed European companies are seen surging 110% between April and June, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.

Yet investors fear this is as good as it will get and that volatility could follow once peak momentum is hit - earnings growth rates of roughly 34% and 28% are expected for the last two quarters of 2021.

There is also the COVID-19 upsurge to contend with. Bourses in Europe, as on Wall Street, are near record highs but any risk of renewed lockdowns could easily knock them off that perch.

Graphic: European earnings - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jznpnyaqbvl/Pasted%20image%201626250481323.png

5/ FREEDOM OR RISK

The British media dubs it "Freedom Day," Germany describes it as a "highly risky experiment". So, who's right about July 19, the day Britain drops its COVID-19-linked activity curbs and mandatory mask-wearing?

Britain's blistering vaccine campaign had made the pound one of this year's best performing G10 currencies, lifted shares in UK hospitality and retail firms and spurred hopes of a swift economic rebound.

But an upsurge in the Delta variant and forecasts for Britain's COVID caseload to reach 100,000 a day by the end of August are stirring unease. Bonds are benefiting from a rush to safety while European travel shares are down 8% in the past month.

Friday's July Purchasing Managers' Index releases may reflect the impact of rising infections on activity. With the likes of Israel and Holland backtracking on reopening plans and Germany retaining curbs until vaccinations rise, just how long Britons enjoy their freedom from lockdown remains to be seen.

Graphic: UK COVID cases - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/oakpedkoqvr/Pasted%20image%201626295027784.png

Leave your comment
31-07-2021 19:26:26 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1871

-0.0015 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.1871

-0.0015 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.3902

-0.0059 (-0.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

109.72

+0.26 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.7345

-0.0050 (-0.68%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2472

+0.0028 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

130.25

+0.13 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

1.0751

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,812.30

-18.90 (-1.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Silver Futures

25.547

-0.235 (-0.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

4.4785

-0.0450 (-0.99%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

73.72

+0.10 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

75.14

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

3.915

-0.144 (-3.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

180.38

-16.12 (-8.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,089.30

-27.47 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,395.26

-23.89 (-0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

DAX

15,544.39

-96.08 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,032.30

-46.12 (-0.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

25,908.00

-335.62 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,223.25

-16.78 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,675.70

-110.60 (-1.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

BASF SE NA O.N.

66.310

-0.535 (-0.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Bayer AG NA

50.36

-0.71 (-1.39%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

210.35

-1.30 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Adidas AG

306.85

-1.92 (-0.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.548

-0.332 (-3.36%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Siemens AG Class N

131.82

-1.24 (-0.93%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.685

-0.170 (-1.57%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

 EUR/USD1.1871↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.3902Sell
 USD/JPY109.72↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7345Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2472↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY130.25↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0751↑ Buy
 Gold1,812.30Neutral
 Silver25.547↑ Buy
 Copper4.4785Buy
 Crude Oil WTI73.72↑ Sell
 Brent Oil75.14↑ Buy
 Natural Gas3.915↑ Sell
 US Coffee C180.38Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,089.30↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,395.26Buy
 DAX15,544.39↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,032.30↑ Sell
 Hang Seng25,908.00↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,223.25↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,675.70↑ Sell
 BASF66.310↑ Sell
 Bayer50.36↑ Sell
 Allianz210.35↑ Sell
 Adidas306.85↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.548Buy
 Siemens AG131.82↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.685Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,660/ 5,720
(0/ 0) # 643
SJC HCM5,655/ 5,725
(-15/ -15) # 688
SJC Hanoi5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Danang5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Nhatrang5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Cantho5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
Cập nhật 31-07-2021 19:26:29
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,813.62-16.91-0.92%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2178022210
RON 95-II,III2168022110
E5 RON 92-II2049020890
DO 0.05S1637016690
DO 0,001S-V1672017050
Dầu hỏa1539015690
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$73.40+0.280.38%
Brent$75.06+0.020.03%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.820,0023.050,00
EUR26.579,9627.963,10
GBP31.210,5432.514,30
JPY204,45215,17
KRW17,3221,09
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:26 31/07/2021
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái