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Strategists Say Fed Hiking by 75bp in July is 'All but Guaranteed'

21 Tháng Bảy 2022
Strategists Say Fed Hiking by 75bp in July is 'All but Guaranteed' © Reuters. Strategists Say Fed Hiking by 75bp in July is 'All but Guaranteed'

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Investor fears that the Federal Reserve may deliver a 100bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting after red-hot inflation data for June are baseless, according to Citi’s Isfar Munir.

The fact that FOMC speakers “came out in force at the end of last week,” likely signals that the Fed “has all but guaranteed a 75bp hike in July.”

The strong pushback against market expectations of a 100bp rate hike will likely translate into the Fed hiking by 75 bps once again, Munir added.

BofA economist Michael Gapen agrees as he expects a 75bp rate hike in July.

“If the Fed wanted a larger rate hike, it likely would have signaled clearly in advance,” Gapen said in a client note.

“The Fed has no problem surprising financial markets on rate cuts, but it strongly dislikes surprising on rate hikes. Hence, if the Fed were inclined to lift rates by 100bp in July, we think it would likely have signaled its intent prior to entering the blackout period last week, particularly since financial markets had already priced in a larger move. We see little in the way of incoming data between now and next Wednesday that might lead the Fed to change its course and maintain our baseline outlook for a 75bp hike,” Gapen added.

The economist also sees no change in policy as far as the balance sheet reduction is concerned.

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15-08-2022 04:53:48 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0261Sell
 GBP/USD1.2134↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.50↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7118Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2774↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.99Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9660↑ Buy
 Gold1,818.40↑ Buy
 Silver20.835↑ Buy
 Copper3.6783↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI91.88↑ Buy
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 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,280.15↑ Buy
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 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
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 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
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