Stocks up in holiday mood on resilient oil

By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks rose on Monday in trade thinned by a U.S. holiday, benefiting from a recovery in oil prices as concerns about tight supply helped to balance recession fears.

European stocks rallied 0.9% and Britain's FTSE rose over 1%, helped by gains in oil and gas companies. [.EU][.L]

Oil dropped $1 a barrel earlier on Monday on worries about the global economic outlook, but found support from data showing lower output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia.

"Oil fundamentals remain supportive," said Warren Patterson, head of commodity research at ING.

"Clearly OPEC is still struggling to hit its agreed output levels,"

Output from the 10 members of OPEC in June fell 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million bpd, off their pledged increase of about 275,000 bpd, a Reuters survey showed on Friday.

Brent crude dipped 0.2% to $111.39, while U.S. crude fell 0.36% to $108.04 per barrel. But both held up above one-week lows hit on Friday.

MSCI's world equity index gained 0.38% and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.37%, after losing 1.8% last week.

Global equities hit 18-month lows last month on anxiety about rising inflation and interest rates, but have since made minor gains.

Chinese blue chips closed 0.7% higher, helped by a 4.65% surge in Chinese healthcare stocks. Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters.

Japan's Nikkei added 0.84%.

U.S. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both fell 0.3%, however, as recent soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report. U.S. stock markets are shut on Monday.

"Some markets are starting to find their footing but there's a lot of volatility right now," said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management, pointing to risks from the release of key U.S. non-farm payrolls data later this week.

TECHNICAL RECESSION

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's much watched GDP Now forecast slid to an annualised -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession.

The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June, with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%.

Minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday are expected to sound hawkish, however, given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points.

The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end.

But asset manager Nuveen sees some room for optimism after sharp market falls in the first half.

"Beaten-down public markets offer extremely compelling upside potential in the near term," its Global Investment Committee said in its mid-year 2022 outlook on Monday.

Cash Treasuries were shut but futures extended their gains, implying 10-year yields were holding around 2.88%, having fallen 61 basis points from their June peak.

German 10-year government bond yields, the benchmark for the euro zone, rallied 7 basis points to 1.299% after plunging last week as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds. Bond yields move inversely to price. [GVD/EUR]

The U.S. dollar ticked 0.13% lower to 104.9 against a basket of currencies, moving away from recent 20-year highs reached due to its safe haven status.

The euro gained 0.21% to $1.0450, backing away from its recent five-year trough of $1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could get a lift if it decides on a more aggressive half-point move.

The Japanese yen also attracted safe haven flows late last week, dragging the dollar back to 135.41 yen from a 24-year top of 137.01, though it was up 0.16% on the day.

A high dollar and rising interest rates have not been kind to non-yielding gold, which was trading at $1,805 an ounce, down 0.28% after hitting a six-month low at $1,784 last week. [GOL/]