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Stocks creep higher as focus turns to U.S. inflation data

Tuesday, September 13, 2022
Stocks creep higher as focus turns to U.S. inflation data © Reuters. Pedestrians wait to cross a road at a junction near a giant display of stock indexes in Shanghai, China August 3, 2022. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo
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By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Tuesday as traders in Korea returned from holidays in a mood to catch up on a global bounce, while other markets held steady ahead of U.S. inflation data that will offer a crucial guide to the interest rate outlook.

Wall Street indexes posted a fourth straight session of gains overnight, while the U.S. dollar retreated further from milestone highs - partly on hopes that the prices data, due at 1230 GMT, might offer another signal that inflation has peaked.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6%, led by a 2% jump for South Korea's Kospi. Japan's Nikkei tacked on 0.3%. [.KS][.T]

S&P 500 futures were flat, as were European futures. Easing oil prices have markets optimistic that headline inflation will steady or slow in the United States, and that this can reduce the need for future interest rate hikes.

Analysts warn that core inflation is likely to march on, however, and that the near-term rate implications are unclear.

"It's too early to be celebrating the end of inflation, as some market participants seem already to be doing," said ING economist Rob Carnell.

U.S. crude is hovering below $90 a barrel, down nearly 30% since the middle of June and roughly where it traded before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. [O/R]

Interest rate futures imply a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve lifts its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points at next week's policy meeting - a position that is perhaps most vulnerable to a downside CPI surprise.

"The market-implied probability of a third 75 bp rate hike for September has increased noticeably in recent days," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi.

"Results close to expectations for the August CPI report may not change the outcome too much in terms of the market's expectation," he said.

"If officials do decide to go with another 75bp, more than our long-standing call for 50bp...we suspect policymakers emphasise how they are front-loading hikes."

DOLLAR DIP

Asia data out on Tuesday offered a cloudy picture of regional economies. A 9% year-on-year jump in Japanese wholesale prices points to pressure on corporate margins, yet a slowdown in gains for August holds some hope of relief.

In New Zealand rate hikes which began a year ago are starting to bite, sending home prices down 6% since last August.

The investment banking world is also offering a counterpoint to stockmarkets' enthusiasm. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is mulling job cuts, a person familiar with the plans told Reuters overnight.

Buyout giant KKR is refusing to improve a takeover bid for Australian hospital operator Ramsay Health Care.

In currency markets the dollar is off recent peaks. Tailwinds from last week's European rate hike have the euro extending a bounce and above parity at $1.0127. [FRX/]

Even the battered Japanese yen is having a breather at 142.57 per dollar - a bit stronger than last week's 24-year low at 144.99 with some investors closing bets on a further slide as risks of official intervention increase.

U.S. Treasury yields rose overnight after some lacklustre auctions. Selling was heaviest at the very long end, with the 30-year yield up about 6 bps to around 3.5%.

Benchmark 10-year yields steadied at 3.3405% in Tokyo trade on Tuesday, beneath the two-year yield of 3.5506%. [US/]

Gold and cryptocurrencies have crept higher on the softening dollar. Spot gold last held at $1,723 an ounce, while bitcoin was at $22,245.

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04-10-2022 14:08:49 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9883

+0.0059 (+0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

0.9883

+0.0059 (+0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.1395

+0.0073 (+0.65%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

144.65

+0.12 (+0.08%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6540

+0.0024 (+0.38%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.3574

-0.0048 (-0.35%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

142.96

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Summary

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EUR/CHF

0.9776

+0.0034 (+0.35%)

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Gold Futures

1,717.05

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Silver Futures

21.065

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Copper Futures

3.4878

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

84.28

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Brent Oil Futures

89.67

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6.489

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US Coffee C Futures

215.55

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3,393.65

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S&P 500

3,678.43

+92.81 (+2.59%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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DAX

12,382.14

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+66.73 (+0.97%)

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17,079.51

-143.32 (-0.83%)

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1,709.05

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Buy

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7,577.50

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48.53

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163.27

+1.73 (+1.07%)

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Adidas AG

120.55

+1.55 (+1.30%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.796

+0.080 (+1.40%)

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Siemens AG Class N

102.44

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7.747

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

    EUR/USD 0.9883 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.1395 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 144.65 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6540 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3574 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 142.96 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9776 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,717.05 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 21.065 Buy  
    Copper 3.4878 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 84.28 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 89.67 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.489 Buy  
    US Coffee C 215.55 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,393.65 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,678.43 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,382.14 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 6,975.49 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,079.51 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,709.05 Buy  
    IBEX 35 7,577.50 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 41.530 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 48.53 Sell  
    Allianz 163.27 Neutral  
    Adidas 120.55 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.796 Sell  
    Siemens AG 102.44 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.747 ↑ Sell  
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SJC Eximbank6,550/ 6,630
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