Speculators' long Brazil real positions near record high, CFTC data shows

20 Tháng Bảy 2021
Speculators' long Brazil real positions near record high, CFTC data shows © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Brazilian Real and U.S. dollar notes are pictured at a currency exchange office in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in this September 10, 2015 photo illustration. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes

By Jamie McGeever

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Funds and speculators on U.S. futures markets are their most bullish on the Brazilian real in more than four years, data showed, attracted to the currency by the recent surge in 2021 interest rate and economic growth expectations.

The near-record positioning, however, suggests the real will struggle to rally further from here, as the supportive growth outlook and rate differentials have already been factored into its price, analysts say.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data late on Friday showed that funds increased their aggregate net long real position to 22,220 contracts in the week ended July 13 from 21,305 contracts the week before.

That is the largest net long position since late February 2017 and close to the high of 26,050 contracts from the same month, a record since the CFTC Brazilian real contract was launched in 2011.

To go long a financial asset is to effectively bet that it will rise in value, and to go short is the opposite.

Graphic: Brazil real positioning -CFTC https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xlbvgqqdwvq/CFTCBRL.png

Strategists at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reckon the real is starting to look expensive.

"We maintain a preference for BRL over the other regional currencies, but we note that heavier positioning is likely to magnify the currency's sensitivity to increasing political noise, so we remain sidelined," they wrote in a note on Sunday.

The real rallied through the 5.00-per-dollar level late last month from close to 6.00 per dollar in March, but has since pulled back. On Monday morning it was changing hands at 5.18 per dollar.

Economists increased their 2021 economic growth and interest rate forecasts to 5.3% and 6.75%, respectively, according to a weekly central bank survey on Monday.

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31-07-2021 19:26:26 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1871

-0.0015 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.1871

-0.0015 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.3902

-0.0059 (-0.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

109.72

+0.26 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.7345

-0.0050 (-0.68%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2472

+0.0028 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

130.25

+0.13 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

1.0751

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,812.30

-18.90 (-1.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Silver Futures

25.547

-0.235 (-0.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

4.4785

-0.0450 (-0.99%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

73.72

+0.10 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

75.14

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

3.915

-0.144 (-3.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

180.38

-16.12 (-8.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,089.30

-27.47 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,395.26

-23.89 (-0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

DAX

15,544.39

-96.08 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,032.30

-46.12 (-0.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

25,908.00

-335.62 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,223.25

-16.78 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,675.70

-110.60 (-1.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

BASF SE NA O.N.

66.310

-0.535 (-0.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Bayer AG NA

50.36

-0.71 (-1.39%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

210.35

-1.30 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Adidas AG

306.85

-1.92 (-0.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.548

-0.332 (-3.36%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Siemens AG Class N

131.82

-1.24 (-0.93%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.685

-0.170 (-1.57%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

 EUR/USD1.1871↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.3902Sell
 USD/JPY109.72↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7345Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2472↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY130.25↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0751↑ Buy
 Gold1,812.30Neutral
 Silver25.547↑ Buy
 Copper4.4785Buy
 Crude Oil WTI73.72↑ Sell
 Brent Oil75.14↑ Buy
 Natural Gas3.915↑ Sell
 US Coffee C180.38Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,089.30↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,395.26Buy
 DAX15,544.39↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,032.30↑ Sell
 Hang Seng25,908.00↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,223.25↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,675.70↑ Sell
 BASF66.310↑ Sell
 Bayer50.36↑ Sell
 Allianz210.35↑ Sell
 Adidas306.85↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.548Buy
 Siemens AG131.82↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.685Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,660/ 5,720
(0/ 0) # 643
SJC HCM5,655/ 5,725
(-15/ -15) # 688
SJC Hanoi5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Danang5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Nhatrang5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Cantho5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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KRW17,3221,09
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:26 31/07/2021
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