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Shares wobble as Wall St futures slip, dollar stays firm

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Global share markets started in haphazard fashion on Monday as soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report, while...
Shares wobble as Wall St futures slip, dollar stays firm © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks under an electronic screen showing Japan's Nikkei share price index inside a conference hall in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Global share markets started in haphazard fashion on Monday as soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report, while the hubbub over possible recession was still driving a relief rally in government bonds.

The search for safety kept the U.S. dollar near 20-year highs, though early action was light with U.S. markets on holiday.

Cash Treasuries were shut but futures extended their gains, implying 10-year yields were holding around 2.88% having fallen 61 basis points from their June peak.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, after losing 1.8% last week. Japan's Nikkei added 0.6%, while South Korea fell 0.8%.

Chinese blue chips edged up 0.3%, though cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.8%. However, both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures eased 0.7%, after steadying just a little on Friday.

David J. Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), noted that every S&P 500 sector bar energy saw negative returns in the first half of the year amid extreme volatility.

"The current bear market has been entirely valuation-driven rather than the result of reduced earnings estimates," he added.

"However, we expect consensus profit margin forecasts to fall which will lead to downward EPS revisions whether or not the economy falls into recession."

Earnings season starts of July 15 and expectations are being marked lower given high costs and softening data.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's much watched GDP Now forecast has slid to an annualised -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession.

The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%.

RATES UP, THEN DOWN

Yet minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday are almost certain to sound hawkish given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points.

The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end.

"But the market has also moved to price in an increasingly aggressive rate cut profile for the Fed into 2023 and 2024, consistent with a growing chance of recession," noted analysts at NAB.

"Around 60bps of Fed cuts are now priced in for 2023."

In currencies, investor demand for the most liquid safe harbour has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar, which is near two-decade highs against a basket of competitors at 105.100.

The euro was flat at $1.0429 and not far from its recent five-year trough of $1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could get a lift if it decides on a more aggressive half-point move.

The Japanese yen also attracted some safe haven flows late last week, dragging the dollar back to 135.23 yen from a 24-year top of 137.01.

A high dollar and rising interest rates have not been kind to non-yielding gold, which was pinned at $1,812 an ounce having hit a six-month low last week. [GOL/]

Fears of a global economic downturn also undermined industrial metals with copper hitting a 17-month low having sunk 25% from its March peak. [MET/L]

Oil prices wobbled as investors weighed demand concerns against supply constraints. Output restrictions in Libya and a planned strike among Norwegian oil and gas workers were just the latest blows to production. [O/R]

Brent slipped 1 cent to $111.62, while U.S. crude eased 10 cents to $108.33 per barrel.

(Reorting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)

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29-03-2024 05:40:31 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0789

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0789

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2624

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

151.40

+0.03 (+0.02%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.6516

+0.0001 (+0.02%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.3538

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

163.32

+0.07 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

0.9725

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Gold Futures

2,254.80

-0.10 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

25.100

+0.002 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

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Copper Futures

4.0115

-0.0003 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.11

+1.76 (+2.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Brent Oil Futures

86.99

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

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Natural Gas Futures

1.752

+0.034 (+1.98%)

Summary

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US Coffee C Futures

188.53

-2.12 (-1.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,082.85

+1.11 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

5,254.35

+5.86 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (11)

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DAX

18,504.51

+27.42 (+0.15%)

Summary

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FTSE 100

7,952.62

+20.64 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

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Sell (10)

Hang Seng

16,541.42

+148.58 (+0.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,120.15

+5.80 (+0.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

11,074.60

-36.70 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.930

-0.320 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

28.43

+0.01 (+0.04%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

277.80

+0.35 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Adidas AG

207.00

+2.30 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

Sell (0)

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Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.281

+0.104 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

176.96

+0.04 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Deutsche Bank AG

14.582

-0.030 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0789Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2624↑ Buy
 USD/JPY151.40Sell
 AUD/USD0.6516Sell
 USD/CAD1.3538↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY163.32↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9725↑ Sell
 Gold2,254.80↑ Buy
 Silver25.100↑ Buy
 Copper4.0115↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.11↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.99Neutral
 Natural Gas1.752↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 505,082.85↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,254.35↑ Sell
 DAX18,504.51↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,952.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,120.15Neutral
 IBEX 3511,074.60↑ Sell
 BASF52.930↑ Buy
 Bayer28.43Buy
 Allianz277.80↑ Buy
 Adidas207.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.281↑ Sell
 Siemens AG176.96↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG14.582↑ Buy
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SJC Eximbank7,880/ 8,050
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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KRW15,8419,20
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:18 28/03/2024
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