net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

RBI to raise rates in August but no consensus on size of hike - Reuters Poll

02 Tháng Tám 2022
RBI to raise rates in August but no consensus on size of hike - Reuters Poll © Reuters. A man walks behind the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 8, 2022. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas

By Arsh Tushar Mogre

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India will hike its key interest rate on Friday, economists polled by Reuters said, but there was no consensus on the size of the move given the absence of any clear guidance from the central bank.

With inflation running at a near-decade high and the rupee trading near a record low, the RBI, which only began raising rates in May, is expected to front-load subsequent hikes to catch up with its global peers.

Predictions from the 63 economists polled between July 25 and Aug. 1 ranged from a 25 basis point hike to one of 50 bps when the RBI meets on Aug. 5.

Over 40% of economists, 26 of 63, expected the RBI to go for a hefty 50 bps hike, taking the repo rate to 5.40%. More than one-quarter of respondents, 20 of 63, forecast a smaller 35 bp hike. About 22%, 14 of 63, said 25 bps while the remaining three said 40 bps.

"The RBI should provide some clarity of thought, but when there's so much uncertainty, it's better not to come out with an expectation and then not able to match up to that," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY), who predicted a 50 bp rise.

A slim majority of economists, 35 of 63, saw the repo rate already reaching 5.75% or higher by end-year, up 10 bps from a July poll, while the median expectation is for at least 6% in the second quarter of next year.

The RBI has raised rates twice so far in this cycle, first catching markets off guard with a 40 bps hike at an unscheduled meeting, followed by 50 bps in June.

Kaushik Das, chief economist at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), said the bank hoped the RBI would agree on the merits of front-loading rate hikes.

"The RBI can always reduce the pace of rate hikes from September onwards if inflation and growth momentum softens, but we think it is a risky strategy at this stage to be an outlier in delivering less than 50 bp rate hikes."

The outlook for next year was even less clear, with end-2023 forecasts ranging from 4.75% to 6.75%.

With the RBI a relative laggard in the global tightening cycle, India has seen heavy capital outflows, which have helped drag the rupee to lifetime lows close to 80 per U.S. dollar.

With the dollar expected to remain strong in the short- to medium-term, the RBI has few options to defend the rupee without burning through foreign currency reserves.

Just over half of respondents, 20 of 38, who answered an additional question said the exchange rate is playing a larger than normal role in the RBI's interest rate deliberations.

"Front-loaded rate hikes by the RBI will be complementary to their FX intervention towards managing the rupee's exchange rate," said Sanjay Mathur, chief economist for Southeast Asia and India at ANZ.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
15-08-2022 05:18:55 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0260

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0260

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2133

+0.0003 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

133.56

+0.08 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7117

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

USD/CAD

1.2777

+0.0004 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

137.04

+0.12 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9662

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,816.50

-1.90 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

20.773

-0.062 (-0.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Copper Futures

3.6597

-0.0186 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

91.81

-0.07 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

97.88

-0.27 (-0.28%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Natural Gas Futures

8.721

-0.059 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

227.53

+3.58 (+1.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,776.81

+19.76 (+0.53%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

4,280.15

+72.88 (+1.73%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,795.85

+101.34 (+0.74%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

FTSE 100

7,500.89

+34.98 (+0.47%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,175.62

+93.19 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,013.09

+37.84 (+1.92%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,400.40

+20.40 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

44.155

+0.730 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

54.15

+2.47 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.08

+2.08 (+1.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

173.20

+1.18 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.588

+0.062 (+0.95%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

111.84

+1.92 (+1.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.061

+0.197 (+2.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0260↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2133↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.56↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7117↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2777↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY137.04↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9662↑ Buy
 Gold1,816.50↑ Sell
 Silver20.773↑ Sell
 Copper3.6597↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI91.81↑ Buy
 Brent Oil97.88Buy
 Natural Gas8.721↑ Sell
 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,280.15↑ Buy
 DAX13,795.85Neutral
 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,013.09↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(6,620/ 6,720) # 1,655
SJC HCM6,660/ 6,760
(0/ 0) # 1,651
SJC Hanoi6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
SJC Danang6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
SJC Nhatrang6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
SJC Cantho6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
Cập nhật 15-08-2022 05:18:58
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,800.99-1.45-0.08%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$91.23+0.130.14%
Brent$97.10+0.020.02%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:11 14/08/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán