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Positive Second-Quarter US Growth Chances Improve on Trade Data

28 Tháng Bảy 2022
Positive Second-Quarter US Growth Chances Improve on Trade Data © Bloomberg. The Port of Oakland in Oakland, California, US, on Thursday, July 14, 2022. Truckers servicing some of the US's busiest ports are staging protests as state-level labor rules that change their employment status begin to go into effect, creating another choke point in stressed US supply chains.

(Bloomberg) -- Fresh economic data Wednesday reduced the odds that the US will report two straight quarters of a contracting economy and avert what is commonly regarded as a recession in much of the world.

Several economists, including those at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS)., boosted their estimates for second-quarter gross domestic product after a pair of government reports showed firmer durable-goods shipments, a narrower trade deficit and gains in inventories last month.

Economists expect gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.4% in the April to June period, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey. The economy contracted 1.6% in the first quarter and several had predicted another negative print, which would fit the definition of a technical recession.

Read more: US Economy Seen Narrowly Averting Back-to-Back Contractions

The US merchandise trade deficit narrowed for a third month in June, reflecting both an increase in exports and a drop in imports, according to data from the Commerce Department on Wednesday. The report also showed firm advances in inventories at retailers and wholesalers.

A separate report showed bookings for durable goods -- items meant to last at least three years -- increased 1.9% in June after a 0.8% advance a month earlier. Core capital-goods shipments, a figure that is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government’s gross domestic product report, increased 0.7% in June after a 1% surge a month earlier. The figures, however, aren’t adjusted for inflation.

“Stronger data today in the advance goods trade report and wholesale inventories lifted our tracking from 0.1% to 1.0%, lowering the risk of 2Q data marking a technical recession,” Morgan Stanley economists said in a note.

Bloomberg Economics also revised its second-quarter GDP forecast from a slight negative to a small positive print due to better-than-expected net trade and inventories data in June.

“Still, after the first quarter’s decline, flagging momentum leaves the economy vulnerable to further adverse shocks such as a potential energy crisis in Europe or intensified supply strains in the second half of the year,” Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Yelena Shulyatyeva said in a note. “The risk that the US will slide into a downturn later this year has risen.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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09-08-2022 11:40:59 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0193↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2083Neutral
 USD/JPY134.85↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6977↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2856↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY137.46Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9736↑ Sell
 Gold1,802.15Neutral
 Silver20.688Buy
 Copper3.5877↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI90.55Neutral
 Brent Oil96.43↑ Buy
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 US Coffee C211.38↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,757.22↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,140.06↑ Sell
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 Small Cap 20001,941.21↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,272.50↑ Sell
 BASF44.800Neutral
 Bayer52.95↑ Buy
 Allianz177.84Neutral
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 Lufthansa6.751Buy
 Siemens AG109.40↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.799↑ Sell
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