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Philippine cenbank's modest rate-hike stance lifts bearish bets on peso- Reuters poll

By Savyata Mishra (Reuters) - Bearish bets on the Philippine peso grew as the central bank adopted a more modest approach than its peers to tamp down inflation, while short...
Philippine cenbank's modest rate-hike stance lifts bearish bets on peso- Reuters poll © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Philippines Peso note is seen in this picture illustration June 2, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration

By Savyata Mishra

(Reuters) - Bearish bets on the Philippine peso grew as the central bank adopted a more modest approach than its peers to tamp down inflation, while short positions on China's yuan eased following more stimulus and easing COVID-19 curbs, a Reuters poll found.

Short bets on the peso were at their highest in at least four years amid worries that the central bank's 25-basis-point hike this month will not help curb inflationary pressures, according to the fortnightly poll of 10 respondents on Thursday.

The pressure has severely dented the peso this year, with the Philippine currency losing almost 7% so far and still hovering near a 16-1/2-year low.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' incoming governor has indicated the bank may consider bigger rate hikes to support the peso, but said it will not be obliged to match policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The view remains split, however, with analysts at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) suggesting "a gradual rate of tightening may be appropriate as the recovery and re-opening of the economy remains fragile."

Meanwhile, bears in the yuan retreated on hopes that easing COVID-19 restrictions would help fuel an economic recovery. Though the People's Bank of China hinted at accommodative policy, its impact on the unit was expected to be limited.

The central bank also reaffirmed its stance of making the yuan exchange rate more flexible and keeping the currency stable.

Short bets in the Indonesian rupiah rose slightly. Bank Indonesia left rates at a record low last week and stuck to a relatively dovish stance, which analysts fear will lead to weakness in the currency.

Market participants were also downbeat on the Indian rupee, which touched a record low on Wednesday, amid persistent concerns about rapid inflation, higher oil prices, and tepid growth.

Short positions in the rupee were at least four-year high.

Dealers turned slightly more favourable towards Singapore's dollar. The city-state's key consumer price gauge rose in May at its fastest pace in more than a decade and is expected to peak around 4% in the third quarter.

Bearish bets in the South Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit dropped marginally, while those in the Thai baht inched higher.

The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.

The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):

DATE USD/C USD/ USD/S USD/I USD/ USD/ USD/ USD/ USD/T

NY KRW GD DR {{2074|TWD ININR MYR PHP HB

30-June-22 1.09 1.69 1.08 1.5 1.15 1.8 1.63 2.05 1.39

16-June-22 1.54 1.79 1.35 1.33 1.23 1.66 1.67 1.7 1.34

02-June-22 1.22 0.56 0.38 0.90 0.73 1.18 1.06 0.59 0.54

19-May-22 1.90 1.55 1.07 1.19 1.63 1.35 1.53 1.15 1.56

05-May-22 1.75 1.50 0.73 0.56 1.49 1.04 1.47 1.09 1.33

21-April-22 0.10 1.07 -0.17 -0.03 0.94 0.75 0.89 1.00 0.71

07-April-22 -0.41 0.99 -0.46 -0.05 0.81 0.63 0.32 0.53 0.31

24-March-22 -0.16 0.98 0.19 0.04 1.16 0.99 0.12 1.40 0.46

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29-03-2024 14:18:56 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0778

-0.0009 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0778

-0.0009 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2621

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

151.38

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.6509

-0.0006 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3552

+0.0014 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

163.12

-0.13 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

0.9728

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

2,254.80

-0.10 (0.00%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

25.100

+0.002 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.0115

-0.0003 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.11

+1.76 (+2.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

86.99

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

1.752

+0.034 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

188.53

-2.12 (-1.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,082.85

+1.11 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

5,254.35

+5.86 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (8)

DAX

18,504.51

+27.42 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,952.62

+20.64 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Hang Seng

16,541.42

+148.58 (+0.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,120.15

+5.80 (+0.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

11,074.60

-36.70 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.930

-0.320 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

28.43

+0.01 (+0.04%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

277.80

+0.35 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

207.00

+2.30 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.281

+0.104 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

176.96

+0.04 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

14.582

-0.030 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0778↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2621Buy
 USD/JPY151.38Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6509↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3552↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY163.12↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9728Buy
 Gold2,254.80Buy
 Silver25.100↑ Buy
 Copper4.0115↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.11↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.99Neutral
 Natural Gas1.752↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 505,082.85↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,254.35↑ Sell
 DAX18,504.51↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,952.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,120.15Neutral
 IBEX 3511,074.60↑ Sell
 BASF52.930↑ Buy
 Bayer28.43Buy
 Allianz277.80↑ Buy
 Adidas207.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.281↑ Sell
 Siemens AG176.96↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG14.582↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,910/ 8,080
(30/ 30) # 1,361
SJC HCM7,900/ 8,100
(0/ 0) # 1,381
SJC Hanoi7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
SJC Danang7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
SJC Nhatrang7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
SJC Cantho7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
Cập nhật 29-03-2024 14:18:58
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Cập nhật lúc 14:14:51 29/03/2024
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