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Marketmind: To the inflation stations

12 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: To the inflation stations © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Customers shop at a supermarket in Guangzhou's Haizhu district, after the city announced an easing of COVID-19 curbs amid the coronavirus disease outbreak, in Guangdong province, China November 30, 2022. cnsphoto via REUTERS

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

U.S. inflation will set off the global market fireworks on Thursday and beyond, but there are a couple of other potential rockets that could spark Asian markets into life before that - Chinese and Indian inflation data.

China, the world's second largest economy, is expected to register a second consecutive month of month-on-month consumer price declines in December, something not recorded since the first half of 2021.

Economists are forecasting a drop of 0.1% following a 0.2% fall in November, while the annual rate of inflation is expected to tick up to 1.8% from an eight-month low of 1.6%.

GRAPHIC: China CPI inflation (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zjvqjeedzpx/ChinaCPI.jpg)

Indian CPI, meanwhile, has slowed steadily and fairly substantially in recent months. But with an economy growing much faster than China's - India's GDP is expected to expand this year by around 7% - inflation remains at a higher level.

Economists expect annual inflation of 5.9% in December, almost identical to November's 5.88%, which was the lowest since January and almost two percentage points down from the April peak.

GRAPHIC: India CPI inflation (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmvjkllqmpr/IndiaCPI.jpg)

Needless to say, the two central banks are at different stages of the cycle. India's has raised interest rates by 225 basis points since May to a three-year high of 6.25%, and another modest hike is expected soon. Almost alone among the world's large economies, China's eased policy last year.

But the main event of the day is the U.S. inflation report for December that lands at 8:30 a.m. Eastern (1330 GMT).

The consensus view is for the annual rate to fall to 6.5% from 7.1% in November, which would be the slowest since October 2021 and significantly down from the peak of 9.1% last June. The monthly rate of inflation is expected to be 0%.

Investors are in hopeful mood - Treasury bond yields fell on Wednesday, Wall Street and world stocks surged (again), and U.S. credit spreads are their narrowest since April.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

- U.S., Chinese, Indian inflation (December)

- Japan current account (November)

- Fed's Barker, Harkin and Bullard speak

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27-01-2023 14:28:58 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0875

-0.0014 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0875

-0.0014 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2378

-0.0028 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

130.07

-0.14 (-0.10%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.7100

-0.0014 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.3338

+0.0018 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

141.46

-0.32 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

1.0032

+0.0012 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,924.55

-5.45 (-0.28%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

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Silver Futures

23.832

-0.188 (-0.78%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

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Copper Futures

4.2473

-0.0362 (-0.85%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.28

+0.27 (+0.33%)

Summary

Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

87.67

+0.20 (+0.23%)

Summary

Sell

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Natural Gas Futures

2.870

+0.037 (+1.31%)

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Indicators:

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US Coffee C Futures

167.20

+4.75 (+2.92%)

Summary

Neutral

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Sell (5)

Indicators:

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,173.98

+25.87 (+0.62%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (3)

Indicators:

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S&P 500

4,060.43

+44.21 (+1.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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DAX

15,132.85

+51.21 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

Indicators:

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Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,761.11

+16.24 (+0.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

22,631.00

+64.22 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

US Small Cap 2000

1,903.06

+12.75 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

9,035.60

+78.10 (+0.87%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (3)

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Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.620

-0.250 (-0.47%)

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↑ Sell

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Bayer AG NA

56.04

+0.56 (+1.01%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.60

-0.10 (-0.05%)

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Adidas AG

145.28

-0.22 (-0.15%)

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↑ Sell

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.727

+0.102 (+1.06%)

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↑ Buy

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Siemens AG Class N

144.06

+1.24 (+0.87%)

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Sell

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Deutsche Bank AG

12.132

+0.218 (+1.83%)

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↑ Buy

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 EUR/USD1.0875↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2378↑ Buy
 USD/JPY130.07Sell
 AUD/USD0.7100↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3338↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY141.46↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0032↑ Buy
 Gold1,924.55Buy
 Silver23.832Sell
 Copper4.2473Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI81.28Buy
 Brent Oil87.67Sell
 Natural Gas2.870Buy
 US Coffee C167.20Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,173.98↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,060.43↑ Buy
 DAX15,132.85↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,761.11Neutral
 Hang Seng22,631.00↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,903.06↑ Buy
 IBEX 359,035.60↑ Buy
 BASF52.620↑ Sell
 Bayer56.04↑ Buy
 Allianz221.60↑ Buy
 Adidas145.28↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.727↑ Buy
 Siemens AG144.06Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.132↑ Buy
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,720/ 6,820
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RON 95-V23.01023.470
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.250,0023.620,00
EUR24.897,2126.291,37
GBP28.367,7829.577,46
JPY175,76186,07
KRW16,5020,11
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