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Marketmind: The Fed's Thanksgiving tonic

Thursday, November 24, 2022
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

The Fed gave U.S. markets a perfect pre-Thanksgiving tonic on Wednesday, which should keep risk appetite bubbling along nicely in Asia on Thursday.

Minutes from the Fed's Nov. 1 to 2 policy meeting showed that a "substantial majority" of policymakers reckon it will "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of rate hikes as the economy adjusts to more expensive credit.

Markets welcomed this with open arms. The Nasdaq rallied 1%, the S&P 500 rose further above the 4000 mark to hit a two and a half month high and the Dow reached its highest level since April.

Dow Jones Industrials https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzqynenvw/DJI.png

In a clear sign that investors are firmly in 'risk on' mode, the VIX - Wall Street's 'fear index' of implied volatility - fell for a sixth straight day to a three-month low just above the long-run average of 20.0.

Bond markets, on the other hand, offered a more cautious take. Yes, yields fell, but curves went even deeper into inverted territory. Recession next year is a certainty, if you believe the bond market.

U.S. markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and liquidity and activity will be light on Friday. This should allow Asian indicators and events to exert greater influence over local markets this week.

Bank of Korea vs Fed https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znvnbejolvl/BOKvFed.jpg

Encouraging signs could come from South Korea. Although the Bank of Korea is widely expected to raise rates 25 basis points on Thursday to a decade-high of 3.25%, the end of the hiking cycle may not be too far away.

Especially in light of the latest smoke signals coming from Fed Towers in Washington.

South Korea's economy is losing momentum as higher living costs dent household income and demand. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) say 2023 GDP growth will be only 1.4%, with interest rates peaking at 3.75% early next year before being cut in the fourth quarter.

Japan's purchasing managers indexes will show how business activity in the world's third largest economy fared last month. Manufacturing activity is its weakest in almost two years but the services sector is holding up better.

Another market tonic, perhaps?

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

- South Korea producer price inflation (October)

- South Korea interest rate decision (+25 bps expected)

- Japan PMIs (November)

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26-11-2022 20:25:42 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0402

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0402

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2095

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

139.12

+0.51 (+0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.6751

-0.0013 (-0.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3377

+0.0040 (+0.30%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

144.66

+0.40 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

0.9835

+0.0019 (+0.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,755.00

+9.40 (+0.54%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

21.480

+0.113 (+0.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.6175

-0.0005 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

76.55

-1.39 (-1.78%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

83.91

-1.43 (-1.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

6.802

-0.506 (-6.92%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

164.40

+1.65 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,962.41

+0.42 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,026.12

-1.14 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

DAX

14,541.38

+1.82 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,486.67

+20.07 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

17,573.58

-87.32 (-0.49%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Small Cap 2000

1,869.19

+6.37 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,416.60

+37.20 (+0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.605

-0.280 (-0.56%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Bayer AG NA

55.45

-0.06 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

205.35

+0.40 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

123.98

-2.68 (-2.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.567

+0.036 (+0.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

132.06

+1.10 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.390

+0.020 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0402 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2095 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 139.12 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6751 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3377 Sell  
    EUR/JPY 144.66 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9835 Neutral  
    Gold 1,755.00 Sell  
    Silver 21.480 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.6175 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 76.55 Buy  
    Brent Oil 83.91 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.802 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,026.12 Neutral  
    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,573.58 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,660/ 6,730
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