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Marketmind: Oil not so slick

22 Tháng Mười Một 2022
Marketmind: Oil not so slick © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A maze of crude oil pipes and valves is pictured during a tour by the Department of Energy at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas, U.S. June 9, 2016. REUTERS/Richard Carson/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

Falling oil prices are often seen as good news for world markets, signaling weaker inflationary pressures as well as a boost to households' purchasing power and corporate profit margins.

Crude's current slump, however, is more of a mixed bag.

Oil slid to a 10-month low on Monday, accelerating a decline that has now reached around 15% in the last two weeks. The drivers of the drop - both short- and medium-term - are concerning.

The demand outlook in China is deteriorating as authorities there become mired in numerous battles against COVID-19 flare ups. Hopes Beijing will open up the economy soon seem fanciful, spelling trouble for a world already facing slowdown next year, even recession in many key economies.

Wall Street fell on Monday, with energy one of the worst performers. The S&P 500 energy sector index slid almost 3% to a four-week low before recovering. But after having surged around 60% this year - the only major S&P 500 sector to rise this year - there is plenty downside potential.

China's pandemic plight is also fueling safe-haven demand for the dollar - which rose strongly on Monday - and a stronger dollar tends to weigh on commodity and energy prices.

The benefits of lower oil this time around may not be so clear-cut. All else equal, a stronger dollar tightens financial conditions, which may be what policymakers want in the fight against inflation, but growth and risk appetite will suffer.

The eventual good news is the impact on inflation. Brent crude futures are at a 10-month low, which has dragged the year-on-year price rise down as low as 7%. In March it was over 100%.

But right now, oil's slide is being driven by weakening demand, growth fears and a strong dollar. None of that is encouraging for investors or risk assets in the near term.

Oil price & year-on-year change https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgvobmnqbpd/OIL.png

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

- China's Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) earnings (Q3)

- Taiwan unemployment (October)

- Fed's Mester, Bullard and George speak

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08-12-2022 10:55:11 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0502

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0502

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2193

-0.0006 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

136.80

+0.20 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.6716

-0.0004 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3684

+0.0032 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

143.68

+0.17 (+0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

0.9890

+0.0009 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,795.70

-2.30 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Silver Futures

22.812

-0.110 (-0.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Copper Futures

3.8507

+0.0059 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

72.80

+0.79 (+1.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Brent Oil Futures

77.90

+0.73 (+0.95%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Natural Gas Futures

5.887

+0.071 (+1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

160.00

-3.50 (-2.14%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,920.90

-18.29 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

3,933.92

-7.34 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

DAX

14,261.19

-82.00 (-0.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,489.19

-32.20 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

19,350.00

+535.18 (+2.84%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,807.83

-4.75 (-0.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,290.50

-29.10 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.425

-0.500 (-1.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Bayer AG NA

52.80

-0.09 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

203.65

+0.25 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Adidas AG

117.56

-1.50 (-1.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.639

-0.081 (-1.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

132.90

-0.86 (-0.64%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.966

-0.106 (-1.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

    EUR/USD 1.0502 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2193 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 136.80 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6716 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3684 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 143.68 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9890 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,795.70 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 22.812 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.8507 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 72.80 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 77.90 Sell  
    Natural Gas 5.887 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 160.00 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,920.90 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 3,933.92 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 14,261.19 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,489.19 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 19,350.00 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,807.83 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,290.50 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 47.425 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 52.80 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 203.65 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 117.56 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.639 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 132.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.966 ↑ Sell  
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SJC Eximbank6,600/ 6,670
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