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Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed

04 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: New year, same ol' Fed © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An eagle tops the U.S. Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

The start of the year is packed with a string of economic data, including U.S. job openings, that will help drive the market in the near term, with minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting taking the spotlight on Wednesday.

Much has happened since that Fed meeting in December, with China taking further steps to dismantle its "zero-COVID" policy and the Bank of Japan shocking the market by widening the range for its 10-year bond yield cap. What has not changed is the market's desire (hope, even) for the Fed to pivot away from its monetary tightening path.

When the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps last month, after four straight 75-bps hikes, it stressed that rates may need to remain higher for longer to tame sticky inflation. Markets, though, are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023. Surely, something's gotta give.

While the minutes are likely to paint a clearer picture of the path the Fed wants to take, what will also interest investors is whether there is any divergence between doves and hawks regarding how high the terminal rate should go.

"While we would like to see if there are any hints of a serious disagreement with respect to the rate path, it is hard to see how the minutes would paint a different picture compared to the relatively concentrated forecasts in the dot plot," Natwest strategists said.

The new year has brought some cheer to Asian equities, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 1.3% and set for a third straight day of gains. The U.S. dollar is swaying after spiking 1% overnight, while oil slid some more after diving 4% on Tuesday.

Some of the cheer seems to have filtered through to European equities, with futures indicating a higher open, but whether the gains are held will likely depend on the clutch of economic data expected later in the day.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

Economic events: Eurozone, Germany and France S&P December PMI data; CPI data for Switzerland and France; Minutes from Fed's December meeting; JOLTS job openings

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24-02-2024 13:25:59 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0821

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0821

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2671

+0.0012 (+0.09%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

150.52

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.6564

+0.0011 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.3510

+0.0029 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

162.88

-0.05 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

0.9535

+0.0008 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,045.80

+15.10 (+0.74%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Silver Futures

22.977

+0.193 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.8690

-0.0280 (-0.72%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

76.57

-2.04 (-2.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

81.58

-2.09 (-2.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

1.582

-0.150 (-8.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

179.85

-3.30 (-1.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,872.25

+16.89 (+0.35%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

5,088.80

+1.77 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

DAX

17,419.33

+48.88 (+0.28%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,706.28

+21.79 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

16,725.86

-17.09 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

2,016.69

+2.85 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

10,130.60

-8.30 (-0.08%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.600

-0.245 (-0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

28.82

-0.10 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

246.50

-8.60 (-3.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Adidas AG

188.78

+0.96 (+0.51%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.381

-0.122 (-1.63%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

175.30

+3.20 (+1.86%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.390

+0.138 (+1.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0821Buy
 GBP/USD1.2671Sell
 USD/JPY150.52Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6564↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3510↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY162.88Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9535↑ Buy
 Gold2,045.80↑ Sell
 Silver22.977↑ Buy
 Copper3.8690Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI76.57↑ Buy
 Brent Oil81.58↑ Buy
 Natural Gas1.582↑ Sell
 US Coffee C179.85↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,872.25Buy
 S&P 5005,088.80↑ Sell
 DAX17,419.33Neutral
 FTSE 1007,706.28↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,725.86↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20002,016.69↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,130.60Buy
 BASF46.600↑ Buy
 Bayer28.82↑ Sell
 Allianz246.50Buy
 Adidas188.78Neutral
 Lufthansa7.381↑ Buy
 Siemens AG175.30↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.390Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,630/ 7,800
(0/ 0) # 1,759
SJC HCM7,660/ 7,880
(30/ 30) # 1,801
SJC Hanoi7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
SJC Danang7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
SJC Nhatrang7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
SJC Cantho7,660/ 7,882
(30/ 30) # 1,803
Cập nhật 24-02-2024 13:26:07
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RON 95-V24.10024.580
RON 95-III23.59024.060
E5 RON 92-II22.47022.910
DO 0.05S20.91021.320
DO 0,001S-V21.90022.330
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.92021.330
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$76.45+2.650.04%
Brent$80.92+2.210.03%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.420,0024.790,00
EUR25.943,7727.367,66
GBP30.352,8931.644,65
JPY158,40167,65
KRW15,9619,35
Cập nhật lúc 13:23:38 24/02/2024
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