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Marketmind: Expect ECB doves to coo

Thursday, July 22, 2021
Marketmind: Expect ECB doves to coo © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) are pictured in Frankfurt, Germany, July 8, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski

A look at the day ahead from Tommy Wilkes.

After being billed as a quiet summer gathering with little to add, Thursday's European Central Bank meeting is now looking to be one of the most significant policy events of the season.

No new measures are really anticipated. But following on from the tweak to the ECB inflation target, announced at its July 8 strategy review, odds have risen on policymakers promising to retain support for long after pandemic-era stimulus winds down and even add to bond-buying.

It could mean that while some other central banks are beginning to dial back stimulus in the face of rising inflation and economic recovery, the ECB will head in the other direction to try and lift stubbornly low price rise expectations.

More dovish noises will be welcomed by global markets, but the swift recovery from Monday's selloff suggests they don't need too much to keep at current levels.

Asian stocks continued their rebound while European and Wall Street futures signalled small further gains when those markets open. And the dollar index hovered below 3-1/2-month lows, suggesting the rush for safer assets was weakening.

The sentiment hit at the start of the week was prompted by concern that the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 would stall the economic recovery, just as euphoria over corporate earnings peaked.

Those jitters haven't gone anywhere but as with so many previous selloffs, a little bit of help from central banks does wonders to calm the mood and restart the rally.

In the corporate world, Swiss drugmaker Roche reported first-half sales increasing by 8%, lifted by demand for COVID-19 tests.

Graphic: ECB inflation forecast annotated - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xklvyxrrepg/ECB%20inflation%20forecast%20annotated.JPG

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

- ECB meeting, policy decision due at 1145 GMT

- U.S. Home sales

- Auctions: U.S. 4 week bills, 10-year TIPS

- G20 climate and environment ministers start two-day meeting

- Emerging markets: South Africa, Indonesia, Ukraine central bank policy decisions

- U.S. earnings: Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Bancorp,  Dow, Alliance Bernstein, American airlines, Abbott, Alaska Airlines, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), Newmont, AT & T, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Twitter

- European earnings:  Dassault, Pearson, Centrica (OTC:CPYYY), Britvic, Unilever (NYSE:UL), ABB, Roche

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29-03-2024 12:58:29 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0776

-0.0010 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0776

-0.0010 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2620

-0.0003 (-0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

151.38

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6511

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3552

+0.0014 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

163.09

-0.16 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

0.9728

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,254.80

-0.10 (0.00%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

25.100

+0.002 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.0115

-0.0003 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.11

+1.76 (+2.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

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Brent Oil Futures

86.99

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Buy (2)

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Natural Gas Futures

1.752

+0.034 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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US Coffee C Futures

188.53

-2.12 (-1.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,082.85

+1.11 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

5,254.35

+5.86 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (11)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

DAX

18,504.51

+27.42 (+0.15%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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FTSE 100

7,952.62

+20.64 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (10)

Hang Seng

16,541.42

+148.58 (+0.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,120.15

+5.80 (+0.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

11,074.60

-36.70 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.930

-0.320 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

28.43

+0.01 (+0.04%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

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Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

277.80

+0.35 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Adidas AG

207.00

+2.30 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.281

+0.104 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

176.96

+0.04 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

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Deutsche Bank AG

14.582

-0.030 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0776↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2620Neutral
 USD/JPY151.38↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6511↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3552↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY163.09↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9728↑ Buy
 Gold2,254.80Buy
 Silver25.100↑ Buy
 Copper4.0115↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.11↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.99Neutral
 Natural Gas1.752↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 505,082.85↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,254.35↑ Sell
 DAX18,504.51↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,952.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,120.15Neutral
 IBEX 3511,074.60↑ Sell
 BASF52.930↑ Buy
 Bayer28.43Buy
 Allianz277.80↑ Buy
 Adidas207.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.281↑ Sell
 Siemens AG176.96↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG14.582↑ Buy
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Cập nhật lúc 12:54:28 29/03/2024
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