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Marketmind: Dollar on the jobs line

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook: Having just closed out its worst month since 2010, the dollar's bull run may be ending. Federal Reserve...
Marketmind: Dollar on the jobs line © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File Photo
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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook:

Having just closed out its worst month since 2010, the dollar's bull run may be ending.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell green-lit selling this week, surprising traders by not pushing back against markets' shifting financial conditions looser in the last few weeks.

Since the Fed hiked 75 basis points in November, 10-year Treasury yields have fallen more than 50 basis points and mortgage rates have followed -- erasing a fair chunk of the tightening.

Tracking yields lower, the dollar is heading towards the weekend down heavily on the yen for the week and eyeing smaller losses on the euro and most other currencies.

The next test is Friday morning's U.S. jobs report, where a downside surprise could rip the dollar down further. Economists expect about 200,000 jobs were added last month.

More than that, and it might put a leash on the bond rally and the brakes on the dollar's slide.

Markets in Asia were treading water ahead of the figure, and clinging on to optimism about China reopening - except in Japan where gains in the yen provided an excuse for profit taking in the stockmarket and the Nikkei dropped 1.7%.

Stock buying, rocketing local rates and the retreat in the dollar also seem to have finally given a bid to the Hong Kong dollar, which has bounced from the weak end to the middle of its trading band.

Limits on withdrawals from a $69 billion unlisted Blackstone (NYSE:BX) trust after large redemptions hint at losses and stresses in global portfolios. People familiar with the matter said most of the redemptions came from Asian investors needing the cash.

 

Graphic: US Financial Conditions https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgpobmdexvd/Three.PNG

 

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

Economics: Germany October trade data, Euro zone Oct producer prices, U.S. November non-farm payrolls

Speakers: Fed's Barkin and Evans, ECB's de Guindos

 

 

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29-03-2024 11:48:02 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0776

-0.0011 (-0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.0776

-0.0011 (-0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2623

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

151.29

-0.08 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6514

-0.0001 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3552

+0.0014 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

162.99

-0.26 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

0.9727

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

2,254.80

-0.10 (0.00%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

25.100

+0.002 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.0115

-0.0003 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.11

+1.76 (+2.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

86.99

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

1.752

+0.034 (+1.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

188.53

-2.12 (-1.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,082.85

+1.11 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

5,254.35

+5.86 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (8)

DAX

18,504.51

+27.42 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,952.62

+20.64 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Hang Seng

16,541.42

+148.58 (+0.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,120.15

+5.80 (+0.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

11,074.60

-36.70 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.930

-0.320 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

28.43

+0.01 (+0.04%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

277.80

+0.35 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

207.00

+2.30 (+1.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.281

+0.104 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

176.96

+0.04 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

14.582

-0.030 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

    EUR/USD 1.0776 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2623 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 151.29 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6514 Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3552 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 162.99 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9727 Sell  
    Gold 2,254.80 Buy  
    Silver 25.100 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 4.0115 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 83.11 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 86.99 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 1.752 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 188.53 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 5,082.85 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,254.35 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 18,504.51 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,952.62 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,541.42 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 2,120.15 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 11,074.60 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 52.930 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 28.43 Buy  
    Allianz 277.80 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 207.00 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 7.281 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 176.96 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 14.582 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,910/ 8,080
(30/ 30) # 1,361
SJC HCM7,900/ 8,100
(0/ 0) # 1,381
SJC Hanoi7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
SJC Danang7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
SJC Nhatrang7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
SJC Cantho7,900/ 8,102
(0/ 0) # 1,383
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