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  4. Market is Underappreciating Upside Risks of Likely Strong August Jobs Report - Citi
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Market is Underappreciating Upside Risks of Likely Strong August Jobs Report - Citi

By Senad Karaahmetovic After U.S. stocks sold off on Friday in response to Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, the market is now shifting its focus towards...
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Market is Underappreciating Upside Risks of Likely Strong August Jobs Report - Citi © Reuters. Market is Underappreciating Upside Risks of Likely Strong August Jobs Report - Citi

By Senad Karaahmetovic

After U.S. stocks sold off on Friday in response to Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, the market is now shifting its focus towards the upcoming nonfarm employment report that is due this Friday.

The consensus expects 305,000 jobs to be added in August, a 0.4% MoM average hourly earnings growth, and a further drop in the unemployment rate to 3.4%.

A Citi economist believes the August employment report “should still show a very tight labor market,” despite some analysts calling for a bigger drop in the headline employment increase after a very strong July job growth.

However, she warns that upside risks are not priced in by the market.

“Especially following a surprise increase in job openings in July, upside risks of an even stronger August headline employment increase may be underappreciated. Markets will be more inclined to price further hawkish outcomes for Fed policy on an overall still-solid report as we expect,” she added.

The economist has reiterated Citi’s base case for a 75bp hike by the Federal Reserve on September 21.

“Following a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, markets appear inclined towards pricing more hawkish policy outcomes, suggesting a possibly greater reaction to another overall strong employment report.”

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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