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  4. Margin Picture for Brinker International 'Worse Than Previously Assumed' - KeyBanc
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Margin Picture for Brinker International 'Worse Than Previously Assumed' - KeyBanc

By Sam Boughedda Shares of Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) were downgraded from Overweight to Sector Weight by a KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst on Thursday, following the stock's...
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Margin Picture for Brinker International 'Worse Than Previously Assumed' - KeyBanc © Reuters. Margin Picture for Brinker International 'Worse Than Previously Assumed' - KeyBanc

By Sam Boughedda

Shares of Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) were downgraded from Overweight to Sector Weight by a KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst on Thursday, following the stock's 40%+ run over the last month.

"We believe the stock's upward trajectory was a function of improved sentiment with commodity prices likely peaking. But the prospect of deteriorating consumer confidence/spending over the next year limits earnings visibility and our willingness to recommend shares, with the stock now trading above our previous $30 PT," said the analyst.

In addition, KeyBanc also expects FY23 guidance to be below consensus.

"While inflation has moderated since the spring peak, we believe the margin picture for Brinker is likely worse than previously assumed by our peers. Our best guess is Brinker guides FY23 EPS to a range that includes our estimate, with upside to that number dependent on its inflation outlook, labor efficiencies, pricing power, and to what extent the new management team sets conservative targets. Chili's pricing—at 6% y/y in June—is 1-2 points below its peers and remains a potential lever, but one that goes against its traffic-centric strategy," added the analyst.

The analyst concluded that a changeover in management also introduces the potential for a reinvestment cycle at a time when cost pressures remain a challenge.

"We trim our F4Q EPS estimate based on softer NT SSS trends. Our F4Q22/FY23 EPS estimates are 4%/14% below consensus but perhaps more in line with expectations."

Despite the downgrade, Brinker shares gained 1% Thursday.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

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1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

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0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

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1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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4,920.55

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5,035.69

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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