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HSBC expects Fed's final rate hike on Feb. 1, cuts next year

Thursday, January 12, 2023
HSBC expects Fed's final rate hike on Feb. 1, cuts next year © Reuters. U.S. Dollar banknote and 3D printed percentage boxes are seen in this illustration taken, June 12, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely hike its target interest rate for the last time at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 monetary policy meeting, raising it by 50 basis points (bps) to a range of 4.75%-5.00%, HSBC said in a research note on Wednesday.

The bank also expects about 50 basis points in rate cuts from the U.S. central bank next year.

The U.S. rate futures market though has priced in two 25-basis-point hikes in February and March. The peak fed funds rate is seen hitting just under 5% at the June policy meeting.

The Fed last year raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points from the near-zero level to the current 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007. Last month, it projected at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of this year.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said this week that the policy rate needs to rise to a 5.00%-5.25% range to curb inflation that, by the U.S. central bank's preferred gauge, is running almost three times its 2% target.

Fed policymakers overall said they are encouraged by the recent slowdown in jobs and wages, suggesting it is likely that inflation will continue slowing.

But they are hesitant to halt the rate hikes or reduce the size of the increases too soon without inflation under control. That could ultimately force the Fed to raise borrowing costs further.

In the research report, HSBC also said it anticipates the European Central Bank will deliver 50-basis-point rate increases in February and March, taking the deposit rate to 3% where it is expected to stay for the foreseeable future.

The ECB has tightened rates by a total of 2.5 percentage points since July and promised "a steady pace" of hikes over the coming months, but some of its officials have started to argue that rates may be nearing their peak given a looming recession.

Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn said on Wednesday the ECB must still raise rates "significantly" over its coming meetings to restrict economic growth and dampen inflation, which has been far too high.

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24-02-2024 14:01:31 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0821

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

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Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0821

-0.0002 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

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GBP/USD

1.2671

+0.0012 (+0.09%)

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Sell

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USD/JPY

150.52

+0.01 (+0.01%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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AUD/USD

0.6564

+0.0011 (+0.17%)

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↑ Sell

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USD/CAD

1.3510

+0.0029 (+0.21%)

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↑ Buy

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EUR/JPY

162.88

-0.05 (-0.03%)

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Neutral

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EUR/CHF

0.9535

+0.0008 (+0.08%)

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Gold Futures

2,045.80

+15.10 (+0.74%)

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Silver Futures

22.977

+0.193 (+0.85%)

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Copper Futures

3.8690

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

76.57

-2.04 (-2.60%)

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81.58

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US Coffee C Futures

179.85

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,872.25

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S&P 500

5,088.80

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17,419.33

+48.88 (+0.28%)

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7,706.28

+21.79 (+0.28%)

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16,725.86

-17.09 (-0.10%)

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US Small Cap 2000

2,016.69

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10,130.60

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46.600

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28.82

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188.78

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7.381

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175.30

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12.390

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Summary

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 EUR/USD1.0821Buy
 GBP/USD1.2671Sell
 USD/JPY150.52Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6564↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3510↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY162.88Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9535↑ Buy
 Gold2,045.80↑ Sell
 Silver22.977↑ Buy
 Copper3.8690Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI76.57↑ Buy
 Brent Oil81.58↑ Buy
 Natural Gas1.582↑ Sell
 US Coffee C179.85↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,872.25Buy
 S&P 5005,088.80↑ Sell
 DAX17,419.33Neutral
 FTSE 1007,706.28↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,725.86↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20002,016.69↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,130.60Buy
 BASF46.600↑ Buy
 Bayer28.82↑ Sell
 Allianz246.50Buy
 Adidas188.78Neutral
 Lufthansa7.381↑ Buy
 Siemens AG175.30↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG12.390Neutral
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