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Goldman Now Expects Four Fed Hikes, Sees Faster Runoff in 2022

Monday, January 10, 2022
Goldman Now Expects Four Fed Hikes, Sees Faster Runoff in 2022 © Reuters Goldman Now Expects Four Fed Hikes, Sees Faster Runoff in 2022

(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates four times this year and will start its balance sheet runoff process in July, if not earlier, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). 

Rapid progress in the U.S. labor market and hawkish signals in minutes from the Dec. 14-15 Federal Open Market Committee suggest faster normalization, Goldman’s Jan Hatzius said in a research note.

“We are therefore pulling forward our runoff forecast from December to July, with risks tilted to the even earlier side,” Hatzius said. “With inflation probably still far above target at that point, we no longer think that the start to runoff will substitute for a quarterly rate hike. We continue to see hikes in March, June, and September, and have now added a hike in December.”

In its December meeting minutes, Fed officials signaled they are preparing to move quicker than the last time they tightened monetary policy in a bid to keep the U.S. economy from overheating amid high inflation and near-full employment. These conditions -- along with a larger balance sheet that’s suppressing longer-term borrowing costs -- “could warrant a potentially faster pace of policy rate normalization,” the minutes said.

Officials also saw the timing of reducing the $8.8 trillion balance sheet as likely “closer to that of policy-rate liftoff than in the committee’s previous experience,” according to the minutes.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell below 4% and wages jumped last month, adding to evidence of a tight labor market.

Goldman’s forecast for the terminal funds rate in unchanged at 2.5%-2.75%.

“Even with four hikes, our path for the funds rate is only modestly above market pricing for 2022, but the gap grows significantly in subsequent years,” Hatzius wrote.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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21-01-2022 02:31:45 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.1335↑ Buy
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 USD/CAD1.2511↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY129.06↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0368↑ Buy
 Gold1,841.15↑ Sell
 Silver24.582↑ Sell
 Copper4.5328↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI84.38↑ Buy
 Brent Oil87.35↑ Buy
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 US Coffee C242.75↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,299.61↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,482.73↑ Sell
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 Bayer52.70Neutral
 Allianz224.80↑ Buy
 Adidas255.65↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.093↑ Sell
 Siemens AG146.90↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG11.676Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,125/ 6,165
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SJC Nhatrang6,120/ 6,182
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