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Goldman No Longer Sees Euro-Area Recession as It Lifts Outlook

11 Tháng Giêng 2023
Goldman No Longer Sees Euro-Area Recession as It Lifts Outlook

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Economists at Goldman Sachs no longer predict a euro-zone recession after the economy proved more resilient at the end of 2022, natural gas prices fell sharply and China abandoned Covid-19 restrictions earlier than anticipated.

Gross domestic product is now expected to increase 0.6% this year, compared with an earlier forecast for a contraction of 0.1%. Economists led by Jari Stehn warn in a report to clients of weak growth during the winter given the energy crisis, and say headline inflation will ease faster than thought, to about 3.25% by end-2023.

“We also look for core inflation to slow due to cooling goods prices but see continued upward pressure on services inflation due to rising labor costs,” they said. “Given more resilient activity, sticky core inflation and hawkish commentary, we expect the European Central Bank to tighten significantly more in coming months.”

Goldman reiterated its call for half-point increases in interest rates at the ECB’s February and March meetings, followed by a final quarter-point step in May to take the deposit rate to 3.25%.

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05-02-2023 02:22:10 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0795

-0.0115 (-1.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0795

-0.0115 (-1.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2054

-0.0169 (-1.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

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Sell (0)

USD/JPY

131.19

+2.54 (+1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6923

-0.0153 (-2.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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USD/CAD

1.3399

+0.0084 (+0.63%)

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EUR/JPY

141.62

+1.26 (+0.90%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9996

+0.0036 (+0.36%)

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1,877.70

-53.10 (-2.75%)

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22.390

-1.225 (-5.19%)

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4.0312

-0.0598 (-1.46%)

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73.23

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173.63

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4,257.98

+16.86 (+0.40%)

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4,136.48

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DAX

15,476.43

-32.76 (-0.21%)

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7,901.80

+81.64 (+1.04%)

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21,660.47

-297.89 (-1.36%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,985.53

-15.69 (-0.78%)

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IBEX 35

9,225.60

-4.10 (-0.04%)

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54.040

+0.200 (+0.37%)

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56.68

-0.12 (-0.21%)

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220.75

-0.95 (-0.43%)

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161.06

+3.14 (+1.99%)

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145.02

+1.30 (+0.90%)

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 EUR/USD1.0795Buy
 GBP/USD1.2054↑ Buy
 USD/JPY131.19↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6923↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3399↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY141.62Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9996Buy
 Gold1,877.70↑ Sell
 Silver22.390↑ Sell
 Copper4.0312↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI73.23Buy
 Brent Oil79.82Buy
 Natural Gas2.385Sell
 US Coffee C173.63Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,257.98↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,136.48↑ Buy
 DAX15,476.43↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,901.80↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,660.47↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,985.53↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,225.60Neutral
 BASF54.040↑ Buy
 Bayer56.68Neutral
 Allianz220.75↑ Buy
 Adidas161.06↑ Buy
 Lufthansa9.902↑ Sell
 Siemens AG145.02↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG11.530Buy
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