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Goldman, Barclays, SG raise Fed rate projections

22 Tháng Chín 2022
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SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Barclays (LON:BARC) and a bunch of investment banks raised their estimates for U.S. policy rates on Thursday, following the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate rise and hawkish message the previous day.

Goldman said in its note "the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is willing to tolerate more labor market deterioration if necessary if inflation remains high."

Goldman analysts also said they had expected a nod towards a slower pace of tightening in November, and were revising their forecast for rate hikes to 75 basis points (bps) in November, 50 bps in December, and 25 bps in February, for a peak funds rate of 4.5-4.75%, versus 4-4.25% previously.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell vowed on Wednesday that he and his fellow policymakers would "keep at" their battle to beat down inflation, alongside a sobering new set of projections that foresees the policy rate rising at a faster pace and to a higher level than expected, the economy slowing to a crawl, and unemployment rising to a degree historically associated with recessions.

The projections signal another 1.25 percentage points in rate hikes by the year-end in the federal funds rate, which is currently in a 3.00-3.25% target range.

"The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective," the central bank's rate-setting FOMC said in its policy statement after the end of a two-day policy meeting.

Goldman said the Fed's dot plot also showed a median projection of 175 bps of total rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, but that they "would not put much weight on this".

"In our view, if rate hikes solve the inflation problem without a recession, the FOMC would most likely wait until something goes wrong to cut rather than cutting just for the sake of returning to neutral."

Analysts at Barclays Research revised their call for the funds rate to a 75 bps hike in November from 50 previously, and another 50 bps increase in December versus a prior forecast of 25 bps.

"This would bring the year-end fed funds target range to 4.25-4.50%", they wrote.

Barclays expects another 25 bps rate hike at the February 2023 meeting, pushing the target range to a cycle peak of 4.50-4.75%, but a rate cut later in 2023.

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) economists expect a similar 75 bps hike in November and 50 bps in December.

"We project a mild recession in early-2024. The FOMC's move increases conviction, and the risk is for a potentially earlier recession," they said.

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    EUR/USD 0.9759 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.1072 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 144.54 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6477 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3728 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 141.05 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9555 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,672.85 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 18.907 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.4235 Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 80.78 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 86.61 Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.856 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 223.40 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,299.15 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 3,640.47 Neutral  
    DAX 12,069.56 Sell  
    FTSE 100 6,887.10 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,222.83 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,671.71 Buy  
    IBEX 35 7,356.60 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 39.725 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 47.46 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 161.63 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 118.23 Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.955 Buy  
    Siemens AG 100.44 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.639 ↑ Buy  
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