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Gold Holds its Own After Wrecker-Ball of U.S. Jobs Report, Dropping Just 1%

By Barani Krishnan AiVIF.com -- As those in the gold market began Friday’s trading, the ominous question was whether the yellow metal’s prices will survive another...
Gold Holds its Own After Wrecker-Ball of U.S. Jobs Report, Dropping Just 1%

By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com -- As those in the gold market began Friday’s trading, the ominous question was whether the yellow metal’s prices will survive another wrecker-ball of a U.S. jobs report?

While any crystal ball divination on gold should be taken with a grain of salt, Friday’s performance of both futures on New York’s Comex and bullion in the aftermath of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July suggested that longs in the game might not get crushed yet.

U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs last month, according to the report that smashed economists’ forecasts for an addition of just 250,000 posts — making the Federal Reserve’s already arduous task of curbing inflation even harder.

Yet gold, which typically encounters a meltdown in any situation that calls for stiff Fed rate hikes — and a U.S. jobs report that’s more than twice stronger than forecast certainly qualifies as one of those situations — held relatively well under the circumstances.

After tumbling to an intraday low of $1,780.30 — which was still higher than Thursday’s bottom — the benchmark gold futures contract on New York’s Comex, December, settled down just a notch above that, at $1,780.50, down $15.70, or 0.9%. For the week, Comex gold was basically flat.

The spot price of bullion, more closely followed than futures by some traders, was at just below $1,775, down nearly $17, or almost 1%, on the day.

One reason for gold surviving the jobs report was probably that neither the U.S. dollar nor Treasury bond yields — which together are the biggest beneficiaries of any Fed rate hike — rallied too much on Friday.

The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against six majors led by the euro, hit a one-week high of 106.81.

On the yields front, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a two-week high of 2.87%.

“The next couple of weeks will truly test if gold is a safe-haven again,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA. “Bullion traders now have two big questions: How much higher will the Fed take rates? Can gold rally alongside a strengthening dollar?”

The Fed has already hiked interest rates four times since March, bringing key lending rates from nearly zero to as high as 2.5%. It has another three rate revisions left before the year is over, with the first of that due on September 21.

Until the jobs report released on Friday, expectations had been for a 50 basis point hike in September. Now, money market traders are pricing in a 62% chance of a 75-basis point hike for next month — the same as in June and July.

The labor market has been the juggernaut of the U.S. economy, powering its recovery from the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

Unemployment reached a record high of 14.8% in April 2020, with the loss of some 20 million jobs after the COVID-19 breakout. Since then, hundreds of thousands of jobs have been added every month, with the trend not letting up in July despite a negative 0.9% growth in second-quarter gross domestic product this year, after a minus 1.6% in the first quarter that together accounted for a recession.

As thankful as the Biden administration and economic policy-makers at the Fed are for such jobs resilience, the runaway labor market — and associated wage pressures — has been a headache to monetary authorities fighting the worst U.S. inflation since the 1980s.

Hourly wages have risen month after month since April 2021, expanding by a cumulative 6.7% over the past 16 months, or an average of 0.4% a month.

Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, meanwhile expanded by 9.1% in the year to June, its highest in four decades. The Fed’s tolerance for inflation is a mere 2% per year, some 4-1/2 times less than the current CPI reading.

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15-08-2022 05:28:56 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0261

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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Buy (3)

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EUR/USD

1.0261

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Buy (3)

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GBP/USD

1.2132

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Buy (3)

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USD/JPY

133.57

+0.09 (+0.06%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

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AUD/USD

0.7117

-0.0004 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

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USD/CAD

1.2777

+0.0004 (+0.03%)

Summary

Sell

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EUR/JPY

137.05

+0.13 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (9)

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Buy (9)

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EUR/CHF

0.9663

+0.0007 (+0.07%)

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↑ Buy

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Gold Futures

1,816.80

-1.60 (-0.09%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

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Silver Futures

20.777

-0.058 (-0.28%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (9)

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Copper Futures

3.6615

-0.0168 (-0.46%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

91.86

-0.02 (-0.02%)

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↑ Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

97.79

-0.36 (-0.37%)

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Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

8.721

-0.059 (-0.67%)

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US Coffee C Futures

227.53

+3.58 (+1.60%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,776.81

+19.76 (+0.53%)

Summary

Sell

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S&P 500

4,280.15

+72.88 (+1.73%)

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DAX

13,795.85

+101.34 (+0.74%)

Summary

Neutral

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FTSE 100

7,500.89

+34.98 (+0.47%)

Summary

Neutral

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Hang Seng

20,175.62

+93.19 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Indicators:

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US Small Cap 2000

2,013.09

+37.84 (+1.92%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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IBEX 35

8,400.40

+20.40 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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BASF SE NA O.N.

44.155

+0.730 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Bayer AG NA

54.15

+2.47 (+4.78%)

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↑ Buy

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.08

+2.08 (+1.16%)

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Adidas AG

173.20

+1.18 (+0.69%)

Summary

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.588

+0.062 (+0.95%)

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Siemens AG Class N

111.84

+1.92 (+1.75%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

9.061

+0.197 (+2.22%)

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 EUR/USD1.0261↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2132↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.57Buy
 AUD/USD0.7117↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2777Sell
 EUR/JPY137.05↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9663↑ Buy
 Gold1,816.80Sell
 Silver20.777Neutral
 Copper3.6615↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI91.86↑ Buy
 Brent Oil97.79Buy
 Natural Gas8.721↑ Sell
 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,280.15↑ Buy
 DAX13,795.85Neutral
 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,013.09↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(6,620/ 6,720) # 1,655
SJC HCM6,660/ 6,760
(0/ 0) # 1,651
SJC Hanoi6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
SJC Danang6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
SJC Nhatrang6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
SJC Cantho6,660/ 6,762
(0/ 0) # 1,653
Cập nhật 15-08-2022 05:28:58
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,800.94-1.51-0.08%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$91.19+0.170.19%
Brent$97.03+0.10.10%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:11 14/08/2022
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