net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Fed forecasts show fraying faith in soft landing

22 Tháng Chín 2022
Fed forecasts show fraying faith in soft landing © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington, U.S., March 19, 2019. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo
let atwWrapper,atwContainerWidth,atwSliderBox,atwTotalWidth; function initATWSlider() { atwWrapper = $('.relatedInstruments'); atwSliderBox = atwWrapper.find('.slider'); atwContainerWidth = atwWrapper.width(); atwTotalWidth = atwSliderBox.width(); if(window.domainId === '2' || window.domainId === '3'){ atwWrapper.find('.sliderRight').addClass('js-slider-prev'); atwWrapper.find('.sliderLeft').addClass('js-slider-next'); } else { atwWrapper.find('.sliderRight').addClass('js-slider-next'); atwWrapper.find('.sliderLeft').addClass('js-slider-prev'); } if(atwSliderBox.find('.instrumentBox').length > 6){ atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-next').fadeIn(600); } } function atwMoveRight() { atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-prev').fadeIn(150); $(".slider > :visible:first").hide(150) $(".slider > :visible:last").next().show(150); if(!$(".slider > :visible:last").next().find('.name')()){ atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-next').fadeOut(150); return; } } function atwMoveLeft() { atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-next').fadeIn(150); $(".slider > :visible:last").hide(150); $(".slider > :visible:first").prev().show(150); if(!$(".slider > :visible:first").prev().find('.name')()){ atwWrapper.find('.js-slider-prev').fadeOut(150); return; } } initATWSlider(); //update star icon on adding/removing instrument to/from specific watchlist atwWrapper.on('click', 'label.addRow', function() { let parent = $(this).parent(); let checkedPortfolio = false; parent.find('input[type=checkbox]').each(function () { if($(this).is(':checked')){ checkedPortfolio = true; } }); let closestStar = $(this).closest('.addToPortWrapper').find('.star'); if(checkedPortfolio){ closestStar.addClass('added'); }else{ closestStar.removeClass('added'); } }); //update star icon on creating new watchlist atwWrapper.find('.js-create-watchlist-portfolio').find('a.js-create').on('click',function () { let parent = $(this).parent(); let watchlistName = parent.find('input[type=text]').val(); if(!watchlistName){ return; } let star = $(this).closest('.addToPortWrapper').find('.star'); star.addClass('added'); }); //update star icon on adding new position atwWrapper.find('.js-create-holdings-portfolio').find('.js-submit').on('click',function () { let addPositionForm = $(this).closest('.addToPortfolioPop').find('.holdingsContent'); let amount = addPositionForm.find('.js-amount').val(); if(amount < 1){ return; } let star = $(this).closest('.addToPortWrapper').find('.star'); star.addClass('added'); }); window.atwPairTypes = {"243":"Equities","352":"Equities"};

By Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's aggressive drive to bring inflation down to its 2% target will take years to complete and come at a cost of notably higher unemployment and slower economic growth, according to projections from policymakers published on Wednesday that cast doubt on prospects for a so-called "soft landing."

The Fed's latest quarterly summary of policymaker projections shows U.S. central bankers expect to raise the policy rate, now in the 3%-3.25% range after Wednesday's 75-basis-point increase, to 4.4% by the end of this year and to 4.6% by the end of next year, according to the median estimate of all 19 Fed policymakers.

The rate hikes are the sharpest since the last time the Fed, under Paul Volcker's leadership, battled super-high inflation in the 1980s. But back then, Volcker had to drive borrowing costs well into the double digits to vanquish inflation; even the most hawkish Fed policymaker today sees rates rising only to 4.9% next year, Wednesday's projections show.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is hopeful that the projected rate path will do the job, allowing him to avoid the high costs imposed by Volcker's actions, including 10.8% unemployment.

But the projections do show Americans are in for some pain ahead as the Fed works to end inflation and prevent what Powell says would otherwise be even worse outcomes.

UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST IN FOCUS

Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure - the personal consumption expenditures price index - is expected to be 5.4% in the last quarter of this year before cooling to 2.8% in the final quarter of next year, the projections show. By the end of 2024 policymakers see inflation at 2.3%, and easing to its 2% target by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile policymakers expect their interest-rate hikes to push the unemployment rate, now at 3.7%, to 3.8% next quarter and 4.4% in the final quarter of 2023.

That projected increase of 0.6 percentage point indicates a recession will begin by year's end as defined by an indicator that has gained a following in recent years. The Sahm Rule, named for former Fed staffer Claudia Sahm, says the U.S. economy is typically in recession once the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises half a percentage point above the rate's lowest three-month average over the preceding 12 months. That low currently is around 3.56%.

Historically once the unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point, it continues to rise another point or two, if not more.

In the last forecast, issued in June, the jobless rate was seen rising to 4.1% in 2024.

Wednesday's projections show Fed policymakers have also become more pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth. One policymaker saw the U.S. economy shrinking next year, the projections showed, though most did pencil in an expansion this year and next. The median projection was for GDP growth to slow to 0.2% this year, compared with June's expectation for 1.7% growth.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
03-10-2022 18:28:07 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9766

-0.0033 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/USD

0.9766

-0.0033 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

GBP/USD

1.1193

+0.0032 (+0.29%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

145.02

+0.27 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

AUD/USD

0.6450

+0.0048 (+0.75%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3745

-0.0080 (-0.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

141.63

-0.21 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

0.9661

-0.0009 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

1,673.65

+1.65 (+0.10%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Silver Futures

19.438

+0.399 (+2.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.3725

-0.0400 (-1.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.00

+3.51 (+4.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

88.60

+3.46 (+4.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

6.582

-0.184 (-2.72%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

220.85

-0.70 (-0.32%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,302.45

-15.75 (-0.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

3,585.62

-54.85 (-1.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

12,062.63

-51.73 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

6,853.25

-40.56 (-0.59%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

17,079.51

-143.32 (-0.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,667.27

-7.66 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

7,385.00

+18.20 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

40.200

+0.600 (+1.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

47.62

+0.21 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

160.74

-1.06 (-0.66%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Adidas AG

116.65

-2.23 (-1.88%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.538

-0.380 (-6.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

99.34

-1.86 (-1.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

7.426

-0.220 (-2.88%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 0.9766 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.1193 Sell  
    USD/JPY 145.02 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6450 Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3745 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 141.63 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9661 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,673.65 Buy  
    Silver 19.438 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.3725 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 83.00 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 88.60 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.582 Neutral  
    US Coffee C 220.85 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,302.45 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,585.62 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,062.63 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 6,853.25 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,079.51 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,667.27 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 7,385.00 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 40.200 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 47.62 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 160.74 Buy  
    Adidas 116.65 Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.538 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 99.34 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.426 Sell  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,540/ 6,620
(30/ 10) # 1,795
SJC HCM6,520/ 6,620
(-20/ -20) # 1,798
SJC Hanoi6,520/ 6,622
(-20/ -20) # 1,800
SJC Danang6,520/ 6,622
(-20/ -20) # 1,800
SJC Nhatrang6,520/ 6,622
(-20/ -20) # 1,800
SJC Cantho6,520/ 6,622
(-20/ -20) # 1,800
Cập nhật 03-10-2022 18:28:09
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,664.64 +0.34 0.02%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V22.12022.560
RON 95-III21.44021.860
E5 RON 92-II20.73021.140
DO 0.05S22.20022.640
DO 0,001S-V24.18024.660
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.68022.110
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $82.90 -3.21 -3.87%
Brent $88.52 -3.21 -3.62%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.730,0024.040,00
EUR22.844,1424.122,55
GBP25.913,3127.017,45
JPY160,53169,94
KRW14,3417,48
Cập nhật lúc 17:20:03 03/10/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán