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'Fear gauge' futures signals U.S. stock selling crescendo

22 Tháng Chín 2022
'Fear gauge' futures signals U.S. stock selling crescendo © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 13, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Futures tied to Wall Street's fear gauge on Wednesday sent a signal that has historically marked intense selling pressure in markets, but has sometimes preceded stock market rebounds.

The October VIX futures rose 0.28 points above the November futures on Wednesday, the widest margin since mid-June, after Wall Street's main indexes sold off following a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

VIX futures, which plot volatility expectations for several months ahead, normally remain upward sloping, with near-term futures relatively less pricey than those that target coming months.

An inverted curve, when near-dated contracts are more expensive than later dated ones, suggests investors are growing more worried about near-term events, raising the cost of hedging.

Such a signal has occurred prominently five times since 2020, with two instances followed by market rebounds, including the most recent one in mid-June.

"It's usually a sign all the risk is being pulled into the here and the now," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.

"That's why often we will look at it as a capitulation indicator," Murphy said.

The two nearest VIX futures last inverted in June, amid a bout of intense selling that drove the S&P 500 (SPX) to its bear market low. The index rebounded 17% soon after, though most of that rally has been reversed on fears the Fed will be more hawkish than previously anticipated.

While an inversion this time may indicate intensifying selling pressure, it does not necessarily signal an immediate end to the market's recent slide, Murphy said. For instance, the two front month VIX futures remained inverted for a month - from mid-February through mid-March - before the stock market sell-off in the first quarter took a breather.

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05-10-2022 08:29:14 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9990

+0.0007 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

0.9990

+0.0007 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.1461

-0.0011 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

143.80

-0.28 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

AUD/USD

0.6526

+0.0026 (+0.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3512

0.0001 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

143.65

-0.20 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9780

+0.0006 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,731.95

+1.45 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.062

-0.037 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.5185

+0.0235 (+0.67%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

86.38

-0.14 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Brent Oil Futures

91.62

-0.06 (-0.07%)

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Moving Avg:

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Natural Gas Futures

6.787

-0.034 (-0.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

US Coffee C Futures

217.73

+1.98 (+0.92%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,484.48

+142.31 (+4.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

3,790.93

+112.50 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

12,670.48

+461.00 (+3.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,086.46

+177.70 (+2.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

17,079.51

-143.32 (-0.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,775.77

+66.90 (+3.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

7,696.60

+234.60 (+3.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.300

+1.360 (+3.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

48.65

+0.69 (+1.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

167.20

+5.66 (+3.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

126.20

+7.20 (+6.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.978

+0.262 (+4.58%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

106.32

+5.40 (+5.35%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.070

+0.440 (+5.77%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 0.9990 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.1461 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 143.80 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6526 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3512 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 143.65 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9780 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,731.95 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 21.062 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.5185 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 86.38 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 91.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.787 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 217.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,484.48 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,790.93 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 12,670.48 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,086.46 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,079.51 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,775.77 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 7,696.60 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 42.300 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 48.65 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 167.20 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 126.20 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.978 Sell  
    Siemens AG 106.32 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 8.070 ↑ Buy  
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