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'Fear gauge' futures close to signaling U.S. stock selling crescendo

22 Tháng Chín 2022
'Fear gauge' futures close to signaling U.S. stock selling crescendo © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 13, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Futures tied to Wall Street’s fear gauge are close to sending a signal of growing fear that has sometimes preceded past stock market rebounds.

With investors awaiting a consequential Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday afternoon, October VIX futures were trading only 0.20 points lower than November futures, the slimmest margin since mid-June, when the S&P 500 marked a bottom.

VIX futures, which plot volatility expectations for several months ahead, normally remain upward sloping, with near-term futures relatively less pricey than those that target coming months.

An inverted curve, when near-dated contracts are more expensive than later dated ones, suggests investors are growing more worried about near-term events, raising the cost of hedging.

Such a signal has occurred prominently five times since 2020, with two instances followed by market rebounds, including the most recent one in mid-June.

GRAPHIC: Volatility futures https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/akpezbkxjvr/chart.png

"It's usually a sign all the risk is being pulled into the here and the now," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.

"That's why often we will look at it as a capitulation indicator," Murphy said.

The two nearest VIX futures last inverted in June, amid a bout of intense selling that drove the S&P 500 to its bear market low. The index staged a 17% soon after, though most of that rally has been reversed on fears the Fed will be more hawkish than previously anticipated.

While an inversion this time may well indicate intensifying selling pressure, it does not necessarily signal an immediate end to the market's recent slide, Murphy said. For instance the two front month VIX futures remained inverted for a month - from mid-February through mid-March - before the stock market selloff in the first quarter took a breather.

To be sure, much of the bump up in near-term volatility expectations that is creating inversion now may be coming from the looming Fed decision, and could well recede once the decision is out of the way, strategists said.

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03-10-2022 18:38:10 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9768

-0.0031 (-0.32%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

0.9768

-0.0031 (-0.32%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

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GBP/USD

1.1202

+0.0043 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

144.91

+0.17 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6456

+0.0053 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3744

-0.0081 (-0.59%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

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EUR/JPY

141.55

-0.28 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9656

-0.0014 (-0.15%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,674.10

+2.10 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

19.457

+0.418 (+2.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

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Copper Futures

3.3620

-0.0505 (-1.48%)

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↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

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Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

83.02

+3.53 (+4.44%)

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Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

88.61

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

220.65

-0.90 (-0.41%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,304.45

-13.75 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

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S&P 500

3,585.62

-54.85 (-1.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

12,071.26

-43.10 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

6,859.20

-34.61 (-0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

17,079.51

-143.32 (-0.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,667.27

-7.66 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

7,386.50

+19.70 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

40.227

+0.627 (+1.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

47.63

+0.22 (+0.46%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

160.76

-1.04 (-0.64%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Adidas AG

116.85

-2.03 (-1.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.550

-0.368 (-6.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

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Siemens AG Class N

99.32

-1.88 (-1.86%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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Indicators:

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Deutsche Bank AG

7.426

-0.220 (-2.88%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

    EUR/USD 0.9768 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.1202 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 144.91 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6456 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3744 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 141.55 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9656 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,674.10 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 19.457 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.3620 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 83.02 Buy  
    Brent Oil 88.61 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 6.581 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 220.65 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,304.45 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,585.62 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,071.26 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 6,859.20 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,079.51 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,667.27 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 7,386.50 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 40.227 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 47.63 Buy  
    Allianz 160.76 Neutral  
    Adidas 116.85 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.550 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 99.32 Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.426 ↑ Sell  
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